Cover Story
A schematic diagram of the Geological Survivor Effect. In geological research, does the correlation between two factors necessarily imply a causal rela-tionship? In organic-rich black shales, there are generally varying numbers of bentonite bands, with a relatively large quantity (correlation). Based on this, it is assumed that volcanic activity enhanced productivity (causal relationship). Abundant gravity flows have also been observed in the shale, which is suggested to enhance productivity. Moreover, many correlation-related phenomena exist: some metal elements are anomalously enriched in shales, even forming large- scale mineral deposits. Research has found that relatively enclosed water bodies act as “refugia”, enabling the relative enrichment of substances. Meanwhile, the low-energy hydrodynamic regime in such settings facilitates the preservation of gravity flow records. In contrast, open water bodies lack this ability. Based on this, the Geological Survivor Effect has been proposed, suggesting that these factors may merely be survivors in the geological history, showing a correlation but lacking a causal connection. For details see pp. 695-710 of this issue. (Image by MAO Xiaoping).
