| 基于不确定性分析的低渗储层碳封存水力压裂参数优化研究 |
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| 关键词:carbon storage in saline aquifers low-porosity and low-permeability reservoirs hydraulic fracturing uncertainty analysis probabilistic optimization |
| 基金项目:本文由山西省重点研发计划项目“山西省地下咸水层二氧化碳地质封存选址关键技术研究”(编号: 202102090301009)和山西省自然资源厅2023年度地质勘查项目(编号: 2023-1-29)联合资助。 |
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| Optimization of Hydraulic Fracturing Parameters for Carbon Sequestration in Low-permeability Reservoirs Based on Uncertainty Analysis |
| Under the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, geological carbon dioxide (CO2) storage in deep saline aquifers has emerged as a critical emission reduction technology. However, the low-porosity and low-permeability characteristics typical of terrestrial sedimentary basins in China significantly constrain CO2 injectivity and impede the large-scale application of this technology. Hydraulic fracturing is an effective method for enhancing the injection capacity; however, spatial variability and uncertainty in geological parameters such as porosity and permeability complicate the design of fracturing strategies. This study focuses on a low-permeability saline aquifer within the Daning–Jixian block of the Ordos Basin and proposes a probabilistic optimization framework for fracturing parameters that incorporates geological uncertainty. This study involves, 1) quantifying the uncertainties and correlations in the porosity and permeability of favorable reservoir zones through literature research to construct representative reservoir conditions; 2) establishing a quantitative relationship between the fracture radius (Rf), permeability enhancement factor (Ke), and maximum allowable injection rate (Qs) under formation safety constraints via numerical simulation; 3) and applying a dual decision-making criterion based on the maximum-minimum and mean-variance criteria to comprehensively assess the performance and robustness of different fracturing schemes. The results indicate that the fracturing design with Rf=2 50 m and Ke=250 achieved the highest minimum injection efficiency (4.27 t/d). Meanwhile, the Rf=100 m and Ke=250 schemes, while exhibiting performances comparable to those of the former, is associated with lower engineering risks owing to its reduced fracture scale, rendering it a preferable candidate under a risk-averse strategy. This study contributes a robust probabilistic optimization framework for fracturing design under conditions of significant uncertainty in geological parameters, providing a practical strategy for enhancing CO2 injectivity in low-permeability reservoirs that balances injection efficiency against storage safety and exhibits strong generalizability. These findings offer valuable guidance and support for scaling-up carbon storage projects in low-permeability continental basins in China. |
| CUI Xiaosong,CI Huiling,GUO Chaobin,LI Cai,YUAN Wentao,FANG Binbin.2026.Optimization of Hydraulic Fracturing Parameters for Carbon Sequestration in Low-permeability Reservoirs Based on Uncertainty Analysis[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,47(2):421-432. |
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