| 矿产资源供需系统演化机理探析——基于科技革命、能源转型等复合作用的视角 |
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| 关键词:technological revolution energy transition mineral resources security system evolution mechanism combined effects |
| 基金项目:深地国家科技重大专项项目(编号: 2024ZD1002000);中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20230040);国家自然科学面上基金项目(编号: 42271281) |
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| Analysis of the Evolution Mechanism of Mineral Resource Supply and Demand System: Based on the Perspective of Scientific and Technological Revolution and Energy Transformation |
| Among the major powers, the three major factors influencing the world’s resource patterns are technological revolution, energy transition, and the game. Analyzing the driving effect of the combined effect of the three factors on the mineral resource system is important for deepening the theory of the mineral resource security system, analyzing and judging their development trends. Based on the two major theories of the “Mineral Resources Security Giant System” and the “Resource-industry” evolution law, this study first constructed an analytical framework that included a composite factor subsystem covering three key influencing factors: technological revolution, energy transition, and major power competition, as well as the mineral resources demand and the mineral resources supply subsystems. Further, we propose analyzing the changes in the mineral resource demand system based on the changes in leading industries. The analysis suggests that (1) energy transition, by creating a new energy industrial system, has a systematic and disruptive impact on the mineral resource demand subsystem. The other two major factors influence the mineral resource demand subsystem more frequently. The new energy industry and its corresponding mineral spectra were identified through the four major links of new energy production, transportation, storage, and use, which have been sorted out. (2) On a long-term scale, the technological revolution is the core driving force for the evolution of the mineral resource demand system. This technological revolution, represented by artificial intelligence, is expected to lead to a significant increase in energy demand. Simultaneously, it presents tremendous challenges to energy transition and causes uncertainty regarding energy transition and the possible demand for mineral resources. (3) Competition between major powers is the core source of artificial uncertainty. Different countries have formed different energy transition route and different patterns of mineral resource demand have been created. The trend of localization, regionalization, and alliances in the supply of mineral resources is also irreversible and accelerating, driven by this evolution against the backdrop. |
| ZHANG Yanfei,CHEN Qishen,XING Jiayun,LONG Tao,ZHENG Guodong,WANG Kun,REN Xin,LI Qiang,JI Xingzhong,ZHAO Hongkun,LI Mei,SONG Dan.2025.Analysis of the Evolution Mechanism of Mineral Resource Supply and Demand System: Based on the Perspective of Scientific and Technological Revolution and Energy Transformation[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,46(5):901-908. |
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