| “双碳”目标下中国光伏产业铟需求预测 |
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| 关键词:dual carbon indium demand dynamic material flow photovoltaic industry |
| 基金项目:自然资源部海底矿产资源重点实验室开放基金课题(编号: KLMMR-2022-G01) |
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| Indium Demand in China’s Photovoltaic Industry Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal |
| Indium is a key raw material for solar photovoltaic (PV) thin-film technology. Understanding the patterns of indium consumption is not only a prerequisite for scientifically managing the indium industry but also holds significant importance in realizing the dual carbon goals. Based on four energy transition pathways and two indium use intensities, this study calculates the CIGS installed capacity and scrap volume from 2020 to 2050 using the dynamic material flow analysis method. Subsequently, the indium demand trend, scrap volume, and potential recovery volume in the PV field are predicted under eight scenarios. The results show that (1) under the four aforementioned energy transition pathways, the installed PV capacity in 2050 will increase by factors of 8.3, 5.6, 6, and 5.1 with respect to that of 2023, respectively; (2) the cumulative demand for indium will grow rapidly from 2023 to 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 37%; from 2031 to 2050, the average annual growth rate will be 7%; (3) from 2015 to 2050, the cumulative scrap amount of indium in CIGS will be 436–788 tons; however, owing to technical reasons, the role of scrapped CIGS in alleviating indium supply is difficult to reflect in the short term; (4) relying solely on zinc concentrate smelting to extract primary indium will not be sufficient to meet the medium to long-term indium demand. It is suggested to strengthen the investigation and evaluation of indium resources, determine the resource background, promote technical research, improve the utilization efficiency of indium resources and the level of indium recycling, strengthen the research on development and utilization of co-associated mines, and consolidate the domestic indium resource guarantee capacity in multiple ways. |
| ZHOU Yanjing,WANG Gaoshang.2024.Indium Demand in China’s Photovoltaic Industry Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,45(6):1033-1042. |
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