| 主要国家间石油贸易演化博弈分析——以中国、俄罗斯、印度、沙特阿拉伯为例 |
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| 关键词:petroleum security evolutionary game energy cooperation energy competition |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用”(编号: 72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(编号: 71991480)及其课题5“新时代中国战略性关键矿产资源全球治理体系研究”(编号: 71991485) |
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| Game Analysis of Oil Trade among Major Countries: Taking China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia as Examples |
| A new pattern of oil trade has emerged under the influence of geopolitics and the COVID-19 pandemic. To explore China’s oil security in these changed times, this study takes the new pattern of global oil trade as the background and adopts the oil trade models of Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, and China itself. Since Saudi Arabia’s oil trade with China and India has been safe and stable for long, this study uses evolutionary game theory to make a quantitative analysis of the energy competition between China and India and the energy cooperation between China and Russia. The research results reveal the following: 1) The continued increase in India’s Russian oil imports will pose a threat to China’s oil security. When India’s oil imports from Russia reach 16.5%, it will change the oil trade structure of the four countries and become a crucial threat to China and 2) Russia’s willingness to export has a direct impact on the results. As Russia’s willingness to export declines, it will affect the results and pose a threat to China’s oil security. This study is of great significance as it provides meaningful insights to ensure China’s oil security in the post pandemic era with key changes in the world’s oil trade pattern. |
| JIANG Zhi-hao,ZHONG Wei-qiong,HAN Mei.2023.Game Analysis of Oil Trade among Major Countries: Taking China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia as Examples[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,44(2):387-394. |
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