| 全球镍矿贸易网络的供应风险传播研究 |
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| 关键词:nickel mining trade supply crisis crisis propagation complex network cascade failure |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目“中国关键金属矿产清单厘定与风险评估”(编号: 92162321);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用”(编号: 72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(编号: 71991480);其课题5“新时代中国战略性关键矿产资源全球治理体系研究”(编号: 71991485) |
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| Research on the Supply Risk Propagation of the Global Nickel Ore Trade Network |
| Nickel is a key metal in the global energy transition to low carbon. In recent years, nickel supply risks have occurred periodically due to resource protection, geopolitical conflicts, and emergencies. Therefore, it is important for trading countries to understand the transmission process and impact intensity of supply crises in various countries. To explore this issue, we constructed a global nickel mining trade network and a cascade failure model using data from 2020. This study simulated the transmission process of supply risk in the nickel ore trade network and derived an avalanche network to analyze the structural characteristics of crisis transmission dynamics. The results show that: (1) when r (a decisive parameter affecting the dynamics of the supply crisis propagation process) is equal to seven, the difference in the avalanche scale of a nickel supply crisis in various countries can be well reflected. (2) When a supply crisis occurs in various countries, those countries with the highest exports do not necessarily have the strongest influence. (3) Only a shortage in the Philippines could trigger a nickel supply crisis in China. (4) In the cascade process, indirect links play a key role in crisis propagation. |
| WANG Xing-xing,ZHONG Wei-qiong,ZHU De-peng.2023.Research on the Supply Risk Propagation of the Global Nickel Ore Trade Network[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,44(2):361-368. |
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