| 全球碳酸锂贸易格局与供应危机传播研究 |
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| 关键词:lithium carbonate trade pattern supply crisis cascading failure |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(编号: 71991484; 71991480; 72088101);国家重点研发计划(编号: 2021YFC2901801) |
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| Global Lithium Carbonate Trade Pattern and Spread of Supply Crisis |
| With the rapid development of the new energy industry, the global lithium carbonate trade volume has gradually increased, but lithium exports are concentrated in a few countries, which means that certain risks exist in the global lithium carbonate supply. To deeply understand the evolution of the global lithium carbonate trade pattern and the transmission path of its supply crisis, we constructed a global lithium carbonate trade network and cascading failure model from 2000 to 2021, outlined the trade flow of major exporters and the evolution of their trade patterns, and simulated the avalanche scale, propagation path, and impact of different supply crisis sources. We found that: (1) The global lithium carbonate trade concentration has gradually increased over the past 20 years, the top three exporting countries have remained stable, the top importing countries have substantially changed, and the trade pattern has shifted from South America supplying the world to South America supplying East Asia. (2) The impact of the lithium carbonate trade supply crisis has gradually expanded, which has gradually become dominated by indirect transmission. (3) The impact of the supply crisis in Chile has gradually expanded to China, Japan, and South Korea, but it has had the strongest impact on Europe. Avalanche frequency in Argentina and China is increasing, as are their transmission times, while the opposite has been occurring in the United States of America. We combined the evolution of the trade pattern with the spread of the crisis and clarified the degree of influence and transmission path of the main global lithium carbonate trading countries: Chile, Argentina, China, Germany, etc., as the sources of the supply crisis. The above results can be applied to help maintain the stability of global lithium carbonate trade and help major trading countries to adopt corresponding measures to alleviate the supply crisis. |
| SA Xing-chang,GAO Tian-ming,ZHANG Yan.2023.Global Lithium Carbonate Trade Pattern and Spread of Supply Crisis[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,44(2):341-350. |
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