| 中国铜资源在用存量与二次供应潜力 |
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| 关键词:copper material flow in-use stocks demand forecast secondary resources |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题(编号: 2021YFC2901801);国家自然科学基金项目(编号: 72088101; 71991480);国家社会科学基金项目(编号: 21&ZD104);中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20221795) |
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| 摘要: |
| Copper In-use Stock and Recycling Potential in China |
| Copper is the most scarce nonferrous metal mineral in China. As a result, calculating the level of social accumulation of copper resources and quantitatively evaluating the supply potential of secondary resources in China is critical, as they contribute to alleviating the supply pressure of copper resources and ensuring resource and industrial security. We built an analysis model of copper in-use stock using material flow analysis to estimate the social accumulation level, describe the material flow process in the industry chain, and assess the recycling potential of copper resources in China. The results demonstrated that, from 1949 to 2021, China’s copper consumption, accumulation and production have grown. The cumulative copper consumption and output of mined, blistered, refined, and scrap copper are 190 million tons, 35.836 million tons, 88.241 million tons, 140 million tons, and 71.875 million tons, respectively. The socially useful stock of copper has risen to approximately 140 million tons. Through the efficient international trade system, the cumulative net imports of copper concentrate and blister, refined, and scrap copper are 43.259 million tons, 10.109 million tons, 54.455 million tons, and 29.788 million tons, respectively. The cumulative net export of copper products is 23.525 million tons. China plays a pivotal role in the global copper industry chain. The cumulative demand for copper in China from 2022 to 2050 is predicted to be approximately 360 million tons. The social accumulation of copper will increase rapidly and peak around 2035, reaching approximately 200 million tons. The cumulative supply potential of copper secondary resources is approximately 340 million tons and will peak around 2041, reaching roughly 13.74 million tons. The peak of copper consumption and the substantial increase in the supply capacity of copper secondary resources will greatly ease the supply pressure on China’s copper resources. |
| WEN Bo-jie,DAI Tao,HAN Zhong-kui,GAO Tian-ming,LI Qiang-feng.2023.Copper In-use Stock and Recycling Potential in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,44(2):325-332. |
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