| 基于动态物质流分析的中国铁二次资源回收潜力研究 |
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| 关键词:iron material flow analysis China social stock secondary resources |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题“全球战略性矿产大数据平台;预警与决策支持技术”(编号: 2021YFC2901801);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(编号: 71991480)及其课题5“新时代中国战略性关键矿产资源全球治理体系研究”(编号: 71991485);国家社会科学基金重大项目“自然资源高效利用与经济安全;高质量发展机制研究”(编号: 21&ZD104) |
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| Study on the Recycling Potential of Iron Secondary Resources in China Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis |
| Due to the high dependence on foreign iron ore, enhancing the recycling utilization rate of secondary iron resources is critical in China. At the same time, improving low-carbon transformation and high-quality development is also an effective strategy. In this study, dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) was applied to characterize the available scale of secondary iron resources and the iron stock and flow in China from 1949 to 2021 were analyzed. The results show that: ① Domestic iron ore and imported resources are the main source of the Chinese iron cycle. The cumulative net import of iron material and iron ore amounted to 9.07 billion tons and the actual consumption of iron resources in China from 1949 to 2021 was 12.02 billion tons. ② In 2021, China’s iron stock had reached 9.79 billion tons, and the per capita stock of iron reached 6.9 tons/person. However, the per capita stock has not reached the average level of developed countries. Therefore, the iron stock will increase further, and will continue to stimulate the massive consumption of iron ore resources. ③ In recent years, the theoretical volume of iron scrap resources has continued to increase, reaching a total of 2.22 billion tons. By 2050, it is predicted that the scrap capacity of secondary iron resources will reach 440–560 million tons, and the scale of iron stock will reach 14.10–19.99 billion tons in China. Sufficient secondary iron resources are essential to alleviating the primary supply gap. The research results indicate that strategies are required to accelerate the construction of secondary iron resource recycling systems, guide the development and design of new all-scrap electric arc furnace smelting processes, and comprehensively improve the recycling efficiency of secondary iron resources. At the same time, the “double carbon” target is also an opportunity to force backward production capacity out of the market to resolve the problem of overcapacity. |
| HAN Zhong-kui,DAI Tao,LI Qiang-feng,CHEN Wu,PAN Zhao-shuai.2023.Study on the Recycling Potential of Iron Secondary Resources in China Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,44(2):315-324. |
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