ISSN 1006-3021 CN11-3474/P
Published bimonthly started in 1979
全球工业领域白银需求预测
  
关键词:silver  low-carbon technology  demand prediction  sector analysis method  ARIMA model
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(编号: 92162321; 71991485; 71991480; 72088101);中国地质调查局地质调查二级项目(编号: DD2022179
作者单位E-mail
景锦 中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院
中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所 
jingjin9628@126.com 
李鹏远 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所 hdlipengyuan2008@126.com 
李天骄 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所  
摘要点击次数: 577
全文下载次数: 752
摘要:
Forecast of Global Industrial Silver Demand
      In the context of global transition to low-carbon energy, silver is not only widely used in electrical and electronics, brazing alloys, and soldering and other traditional industrial, jewelry, and investment fields, but is also closely related to green and clean energy fields, such as photovoltaic solar energy, electric vehicles, and 5G technology. In this study, we used sector analysis to forecast silver demand in photovoltaic and electric vehicles under three scenarios: stated policies, announced pledges (APS), and net zero emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenarios. Additionally, we used the ARIMA model to analyze traditional industrial and forecast global industrial silver demands up to 2035. The results showed that under the three scenarios, the industrial silver demand in 2035 will be 19 360 t, 21 621 t, and 26 894 t. In the medium scenario (APS), the demand for silver in the low-carbon sector will exceed that in the traditional industrial sector in 2031. In the high scenario (NZE), the demand for silver in the low-carbon sector will exceed that in the traditional industrial sector by 2024.
JING Jin,LI Peng-yuan,LI Tian-jiao.2023.Forecast of Global Industrial Silver Demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,44(2):305-314.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
Copyright©2008 All Rights Reserved
Sponsored by:
Address:: PostCode: Tel: E-mail: