| 基于恒等式原理的中国钢铁工业铌资源需求预测研究 |
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| 关键词:niobium iron and steel industry identity principle demand forecasting resource security |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目“中国关键金属矿产清单厘定与风险评估”(编号: 92162321);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用”(编号: 72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(编号: 71991480)及其课题5“新时代中国战略性关键矿产资源全球治理体系研究”(编号: 71991485) |
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| Demand Forecast Research of Niobium Resources in China’s Iron and Steel Industry Based on the Principle of Identity |
| Niobium is mainly used in steel production, and niobium-containing steel is widely used in high-end manufacturing fields such as aerospace, ocean engineering, automobile and transportation, engineering machinery, and energy and chemical industries. China is currently the largest niobium consumer globally. The contradiction between supply and demand is extremely prominent in China, which results in a heavy dependence on foreign supplies. To provide a basis for ensuring the supply security of niobium in China and the adjustment of the steel industry structure, this study constructs a prediction model of niobium demand in the steel industry based on the principle of identity and makes a quantitative prediction of niobium demand in China's steel industry by referring to the experience of niobium consumption in the steel industry of developed countries. The results show that: (1) the modernization of China’s niobium and steel industries lags behind that of developed countries; (2) in typical developed countries, the proportion of niobium-containing steel output to crude steel output increases from the lowest to the highest, showing a certain regularity; (3) the demand for niobium in China’s iron and steel industry will continue to grow, the demand for niobium in the iron and steel industry will be 33 to 52 thousand tons in 2025, and 40 to 71 thousand tons in 2030. Therefore, China’s niobium supply security is facing severe challenges. This study suggests the continuous expansion of China's overseas niobium equity production, expansion of domestic reserves, strengthened research and development of niobium extraction and secondary recovery technology to ensure the stable supply of niobium at home and abroad, and promotion of domestic niobium-related industries. |
| LI Tian-jiao,LIU Xin-ru,LIU Yue-qi,YUAN Xiao-jing,LI Ying,LI Jian-wu.2023.Demand Forecast Research of Niobium Resources in China’s Iron and Steel Industry Based on the Principle of Identity[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,44(2):286-296. |
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