| 基于气候情景的岩溶断陷盆地2020—2050年植被动态变化模拟预测 |
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| 关键词:RCPs NDVI karst faulted basins |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(编号: 2016YFC0502500; 2016YFC0502506);国家自然科学基金项目(41671080) |
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| Simulation and Prediction of Vegetation Dynamics in the Karst Faulted Basin from 2020 to 2050 in Climate Scenarios |
| As an important ecologically fragile area and an ecological security barrier area in southwestern China, the karst faulted basin has immeasurable ecological value. The unique vegetation ecosystem in the karst faulted basin is very sensitive to climate change. So, discussing the trend of vegetation changes under the inevitable trend of the future global warming can provide an important basis of the climate driving mechanism of vegetation changes to develop further understanding in karst faulted basins. Based on the meteorological dataset and NDVI time series data from 2001 to 2016, this study used Theil Sen Median analysis method to predict two RCPs scenarios’ NDVI from 2020 to 2050, and analyzed the future vegetation evolution law in the study area under different climate changes scenarios. The results show that, relative to the baseline period (2001–2016), under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate in the faulted basin continues to increase in temperature and humidity, and the vegetation NDVI also increases to a certain extent. Analyzing the common trends of NDVI changes under two climate scenarios, the authors found that the temperature and precipitation in the Muli River Valley on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau increase slowly, the regional drought risk increases, and the vegetation begins to degrade, suggesting that it is a difficult area for vegetation restoration in the future. The temperature and precipitation in the border area between Yunnan and Guizhou provinces are both rising rapidly, and the vegetation will greatly improve in the future. It is a key protection area to prevent vegetation degradation. |
| LI Dan,ZHUANG Yi-lin,WU Xiu-qin.2021.Simulation and Prediction of Vegetation Dynamics in the Karst Faulted Basin from 2020 to 2050 in Climate Scenarios[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,42(3):435-443. |
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