| 后疫情时代全球石油供需格局研究 |
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| 关键词:global oil post-epidemic era demand trend supply and demand pattern |
| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20190674; DD20160103);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(编号: 2017-ZD-15-05-01) |
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| 摘要: |
| Research on the New Pattern of Global Oil Supply and Demand after the Pandemic |
| Since 2017, global oil consumption has been persistently weak, and the growth rate of consumption has been gradually declining. The impact of COVID-19 on oil demand has been "even worse". This paper reviews the trends of international crude oil prices and stock prices of large oil and gas companies since the outbreak of the epidemic, explores the impact of the epidemic on global oil demand and supply markets, studies the short-term and mid-to-long-term global oil supply and demand patterns, and draws three conclusions: firstly, the epidemic has had a major impact on global oil demand, which is expected to drop by 5% in 2020 compared with 2019. In the future, with the gradually recovery of the global economy, global oil consumption will slowly recover, and it is estimated that global oil consumption will reach a peak of 4.87 billion tons by 2030. Secondly, in the next 3~5 years, global oil production will be greater than the demand, and the global oil market will remain oversupplied for a long time to come. Thirdly, in the medium and long term, if the international crude oil price continues to fluctuate at a low price, it will cause insufficient investment in upstream exploration and development, the output of some old oil fields in the UK, Russia, Asian countries and other countries will continue to decline, and the global oil market will become tighter. |
| LONG Tao,CHEN Qi-shen,CHEN Cheng,YU Wen-jia,CHEN Sheng-li,XING Jia-yun,ZHENG Guo-dong,WANG Kun,ZHANG Shuo.2021.Research on the New Pattern of Global Oil Supply and Demand after the Pandemic[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,42(2):273-278. |
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