| 京津冀地区铁矿石需求预测 |
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| 关键词:Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region iron ore demand forecast “S” shape |
| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20160103; DD20190674);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(编号: 2017-ZD-15-05-01) |
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| 摘要: |
| Forecast of Iron Ore Demand in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region |
| The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is an important region for steel production and processing in China, and the demand for iron ore has always been a hot issue in the development of the steel industry in this region. This paper uses the “S”-shaped forecasting method on the basis of China's crude steel supply and demand forecasts, with reference to the national proportion of production of crude steel in this region and the proportion of pig iron crude steel, and focuses on calculating the pig iron production and iron ore demand in Hebei Province and then predicting the future iron ore demand in Hebei area. It is predicted that the iron ore demand in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in 2025, 2030 and 2035 will be 342 million tons, 302 million tons and 268 million tons respectively. The peak demand will be around 2022, when the demand will be about 381 million tons. On such a basis, suggestions have been made for ensuring the safety of iron ore supply in early deployment. |
| JIA Yi-qing,ZHANG Yan-fei,CHEN Xiao-rong,CHEN Qi-shen,LONG Tao,QI Gang,CHEN Sheng-li.2021.Forecast of Iron Ore Demand in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,42(2):217-222. |
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