| 后疫情时期全球铁矿资源格局分析 |
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| 关键词:iron ore covid-19 price supply and demand |
| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20160103; DD20190674);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(编号: 2017-ZD-15-05-01) |
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| 摘要: |
| An Analysis of Global Iron Ore Resource Market Trend in the Post-COVID-19 Period |
| Iron is the most widely used metal in China. There have been many changes in the international iron ore market due to the covid-19. Analyzing the reasons for the changes in the international iron ore supply, demand and market structure and predicting the future trends are of great significance for the stable supply of iron ore. This paper first analyzes the global steel production, iron ore supply and price trends under the covid-19 and believes that the global iron ore supply and demand pattern is further concentrated, showing a pattern of "two countries, two 60%". That is to say, China's steel production will further improve its global share, approaching 60%; Australia's supply share in the global iron ore shipping market will further increase, approaching 60%, because of the covid-19. Secondly, this paper predicts the changing trend of China's and global steel demand in the next 2-3 years, and believes that the main reason for the increase in China's steel production in recent years is the country's need for stable economic growth. China's steel production will remain high in the next 2~3 years, but in the long run, China's iron ore demand will slow down after a period of time. Finally, this paper analyzes the global iron ore price trend and believes that the global iron ore price will rise and fall to less than 100 US dollars/ton in the fourth quarter of 2020. The iron ore price will slowly fluctuate and fall down to 60~80 US dollars / ton in the next 2~3 years. |
| ZHANG Yan-fei,ZHENG Guo-dong,CHEN Qi-shen,CHEN Xiao-rong,XING Jia-yun,WANG Kun,YIN Xiu-qi,QIN Sheng.2021.An Analysis of Global Iron Ore Resource Market Trend in the Post-COVID-19 Period[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,42(2):209-216. |
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