| 未来我国气体能源发展动向研究 |
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| 关键词:gas energy analytic hierarchy process gray correlation method development trend |
| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20160103; DD20190674);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(编号: 2017-ZD-15-05-01) |
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| 摘要: |
| Research on the Development Trend of China’s Gas Energy in the Future |
| During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China’s energy demand growth rate will slow down but will remain at a high level. With the continuous recovery of the economy and society and the emergence of environmental problems, the future energy security situation will remain severe, and the establishment of clean, efficient, safe and diversified modern energy system and the adjustment as well as optimization of China’s energy supply structure are imminent. Based on the judgment of the current status of gas energy development in China, this paper constructs an indicator system specifically for the evaluation of priority development of gas energy, and uses Analytic Hierarchy Process and gray correlation evaluation methods to make a comparatively analysis. The results show that from the perspective of indicator weights, factors such as consumption emissions, fuel calorific value, international cooperation, policy support, production costs, resource potential, production emissions and other factors have the greatest impact on the development of gas energy; from the perspective of the priority development sequence of gas energy, priority should be given to the development of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane, the rational development of coal gas, and the scientific layout of combustible ice development plans in addition to conventional natural gas. It is recommended to increase investment in gas energy exploration, increase the proportion of natural gas energy supply, find out shale gas resources, break through core technologies, improve environmental protection supervision and safety production awareness, and optimize and unify existing policies. |
| SONG Ke-yu,LONG Tao,DUAN Hong-mei,CHEN Qi-shen,ZHANG Yan-fei,ZHENG Guo-dong.2021.Research on the Development Trend of China’s Gas Energy in the Future[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,42(2):187-195. |
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