| 五江一河”的洪水特征及其对跨流域调水量的制约——三评“红旗河工程”构想 |
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| 关键词:Hongqi River “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” annual runoff flood transferable water |
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| The Flood Characteristics of “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” and Its Restriction on Inter-basin Water Transfer: The Third Comment on the “Hongqi River Project” Conception |
| The paper “How Much Water Can be Inter-basin Transferred from ‘Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers’ in West China: The Second Comment on the Concept of ‘Hongqi River Project’” argues that the interannual variation of the “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” runoff and the specific runoff of each node is much less than the “Hongqi River Project”. Based on the above paper and the data and results available, this paper further elaborates the runoff of these rivers, the distribution of non-uniformity and flood characteristics during a year, and their constraints on inter-basin water transfer. Researches show that the runoff of “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” from November to April of the next year only accounts for 12.09%~21.84% of the total annual runoff, and the monthly average is only 2.01%~3.64%. Winter and spring are dry seasons. The runoff of these two seasons is only slightly more than the monthly average of 1.67% or 1.75% of the proposed water transfer ratio of 20% or 21%. Such a small amount of water can only maintain the ecological and domestic water in the basin, and it is obviously impossible to transfer water across river basins. Moreover, it is difficult for the middle and lower reaches of the “Hongqi River” to transfer water during the winter icing period. In the four months from June to September every year, the “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” runoff accounts for 53.3%~88.3% of the annual runoff, and even the monthly runoff in August can reach 17.8%~29.6% of the annual total runoff which belongs to the flood season. According to the actual data of runoff, the water supply period during a year is only 6 months for the flood and flat water period or 3 to 4 months for the flood season, which is much shorter than the annual water transfer time envisioned by the “Hongqi River Project”. In the time window from May to October of every year when water can be transferred across river basins, the total annual water transfer of “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” is only 153.25×108 m3 (20%) or 161.50×108 m3 (21%), if the monthly average water flow rate is 1.67% or 1.75% according to the original idea. The amount of water is only one-fourth of the original idea of 60 billion m3, and it is less than 27% at the best. Achieving an annual runoff ratio of 20% or 21% in the 6 months of the high and normal water periods means that the monthly runoff ratio of 1.67% or 1.75% will increase to 3.33% or 3.50%. In this way, the total annual water transfer of “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” can reach 306.50×108 m3 or 323.00×108 m3. This water transfer scheme will double the cross-sectional area of the water transfer channel or the project scale, but the water transfer volume is only about half or at most 54% of the original idea. With a powerful water transfer capacity of nearly 60 billion m3, the water transfer ratio of the “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” will increase to 27.1% of the annual runoff (before the west line of project for diverting water from the south to the north started), or 39.0% of the other water transfer rivers except the Jinsha River and the Yalong River (afer the west line of project for diverting water from the south to the north project completed), and the scale of the “Hongqi River” is bound to increase greatly, which also means that the difficulty of the project is greatly increased, the cost of engineering construction and operation is greatly increased, and the risk of floods, earthquakes and geological disasters is greatly increased. The actual adjustable water volume of “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” is significantly reduced compared with the concept of “Hongqi River”, which makes the scientific foundation and scientific basis of the “Red Flag River” project argument questionable. |
| ZHAO Xi-tao,WEI Le-jun.2020.The Flood Characteristics of “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” and Its Restriction on Inter-basin Water Transfer: The Third Comment on the “Hongqi River Project” Conception[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,41(1):91-105. |
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