| 中国钼矿资源供需预测 |
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| 关键词:China molybdenum supply and demand demand forecasting |
| 基金项目:国家国际科技合作专项“矿产资源需求预测和可供性分析技术研究”项目(编号: 2014DFG22170) |
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| 摘要: |
| The Prediction of Molybdenum Mineral Demand and Supply in China |
| In this paper, the authors analyzed the characteristics and development trend of China’s molybdenum resources in the light of the geological conditions of molybdenum mineralization, resources and reserves, development and utilization status, industry, and market. Minerals sector consumption and regression analysis were used to predict China’s 2020, 2025 and 2030 demand for and supply of molybdenum resource products (output). Forecast results for China’s molybdenum consumptions in 2020, 2025, 2030 are 8.26~8.3 ten thousand tons, 8.77~9.0 ten thousand tons and 9.22~9.5 ten thousand tons respectively, and the outputs are 12 ten thousand tons, 10 ten thousand tons and 9.5 ten thousand tons respectively. Researches indicate considerable reserves of molybdenum ore resources in China, dominated by porphyry deposits characterized by lower grade (0.056%), with the high grade (Mo≥0.12%) reserves of the resources accounting for less than 1/5; nevertheless, washability of single ore is good. The pattern of supply exceeding demand will remain for some time, and molybdenum concentrate capacity utilization will continue to decrease. Therefore, through the implementation of strict control of molybdenum mining and raising of environmental access threshold as well as the control of the production capacity and some other measures, the problems in China’s molybdenum mineral resources industry might be solved. The conclusions put forward by the authors have important reference value for the formulation of sustainable development strategy of China’s molybdenum resources industry. |
| ZHANG Zhao-zhi,WANG Xian-wei,ZHANG Jian-feng,JIANG Guang-yu,FAN Qing-dong.2017.The Prediction of Molybdenum Mineral Demand and Supply in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,38(1):69-76. |
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