| 铅消费规律探索及中国需求预测 |
| |
| 关键词:lead consumption law “S”-shaped demand prediction |
| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: 121201103000150015; 12120115057601)；国家国际科技合作专项项目“矿产资源需求预测和可供性分析技术研究”(编号: 2014DFG22170) |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 7370 |
| 全文下载次数: 6834 |
| 摘要: |
| A Tentative Discussion on the Law of Lead Consumption and a Prediction of China’s Lead Demand |
| This paper, taking the global lead consumption of the developed countries in the past 100 years or so as the research foundation, analyzes the lead consumption trajectory of several typical countries such as the USA, The UK and Japan, and fits some curve equations for lead consumption per capita in typical countries, all of which follow the “S”-shaped consumption law. Based on this law, this paper calibrates three key points in the lead consumption curve, i.e., the take-off point, the turning point, and the zero-growth point, and explains the connotation between these key points and industrial structure, urbanization, and auto industry development. Using the “S”-shaped consumption law, this paper forecasts China’s lead demand in the upcoming 20 years, and predicts China’s lead demand peak and the corresponding demand. The results show that the peak of China’s lead demand will be around the year 2022 when the lead demand is about 5.9 million tons and lead demand per capita is 4.13 kg, and then the lead consumption will begin to slow down. In this paper, China’s lead demand is quantitatively predicted at the medium- and long-term scale, which provides the macro background and basis for China’s lead resource industrial structure adjustment in the future. |
| DAI Tao,WEN Bo-jie,LIANG Liang,JIANG Han-lu.2017.A Tentative Discussion on the Law of Lead Consumption and a Prediction of China’s Lead Demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,38(1):61-68. |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
|
|
|
|