| 工业部门的终端能源消费“S”形模型研究 |
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| 关键词:industrial sector end-use energy consumption GDP S-curve model |
| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质矿产调查评价专项“能源安全综合研究与动态跟踪评价”(编号: 12120115057001)；国家国际科技合作专项项目“矿产资源需求预测和可供性分析技术研究”(编号: 2014DFG22170) |
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| 摘要: |
| S-curve Model of End-use Energy Consumption in Industrial Sector |
| The industrial sector has become one of the three main sectors of end-use energy consumption and has been playing an important role in economic development. This paper systematically analyzed the relationship between end-use energy consumption in the industrial sector and population and economic development (GDP) using data obtained over 100 years in 15 developed countries or regions. The results show that, with the growth of GDP per capita, end-use energy consumption per capita in industrial sector shows an S-shaped track like “slow growth-accelerating growth-decelerating growth-zero growth or negative growth”, and can be divided into high, medium and low types. Based on the anatomy of the history of end-use energy consumption in industrial sector and economic development in typical countries such as the USA, Japan, Germany, France and Italy, the authors calibrated take-off point, turning point and zero growth point on different S-types and discussed the internal connection between end-use energy consumption in industrial sector and energy consumption intensity in industrial sector, percentage of the secondary industry, urbanization and crude steel consumption per capita. Finally, a general mathematical model of the S-curve was established. The establishment of the quantitative relationship between end-use energy consumption in industrial sector and economic development is considered to be of strategic importance for a country, especially for a developing country, in such aspects as grasping the trend of energy consumption in the process of industrialization, forecasting the energy demand, and formulating the relevant energy policy. |
| LIU Gu-wang,WANG An-jian.2017.S-curve Model of End-use Energy Consumption in Industrial Sector[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,38(1):30-36. |
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