| 中国磷矿资源需求预测 |
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| 关键词:phosphate fertilizer phosphate rock demand inverted U shape regularity demand prediction sustainable exploitation and utilization |
| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目“中国主要化工矿产资源跟踪与评价”(编号: 12120113091900) |
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| 摘要: |
| The Prediction of Phosphate Rock Demand in China |
| Phosphorus is essential for crop growth. Most of the phosphorus, which is applied to agricultural land, comes from phosphate rock. About 66% of the phosphate rock ore mined was used to produce phosphate fertilizer. A reasonable exploitation and utilization of phosphate rock is a key to the national food security and human survival. Sustainable development of the phosphate rock industry is important for the fertilizer industry and agricultural production. This paper analyzes the per capita consumption of the phosphate fertilizer and per capita GDP inverted U shape rule in typical industrialized countries. Combined with the history of phosphate fertilizer consumption, the reasonable ratio of N:P:K and the economy development trend in China, the authors assumed three scenarios, i.e., the high growth scenario, the medium growth scenario and the low growth scenario and, on such a basis, predicted China’s phosphate fertilizer demand. Then, in accordance with phosphorus consumption structure, the demand of phosphate rock was estimated. It is concluded that the demand for China’s phosphate fertilizer may be at the peak between 2020 and 2025 according to the medium growth scenario. The consumption of China’s phosphate fertilizer may reach 17~18 million tons (P2O5100%) and the total consumption of the phosphate rock may attain 20~21 million tons (P2O5100%). The results will play a positive role in the rational application of phosphate fertilizer and sustainable exploitation and utilization of the phosphate rock. |
| SUN Xiao-hong,CHEN Chun-lin,WANG Gao-Shang,XIONG Xian-xiao,GAO Peng,ZHAO Ming,TANG Yao.2015.The Prediction of Phosphate Rock Demand in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,36(2):213-219. |
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