| 基于能源需求理论的全球CO2排放趋势分析 |
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| 关键词:energy demand theory in 2030 prediction of CO2 emission |
| 基金项目:地质调查项目(编号: N0702)；国家开发银行研究项目(编号: E0811) |
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| 摘要: |
| A Trend Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based on the Energy Demand |
| Of numerous human activities that produce greenhouse gases, the use of energy represents the largest source of CO2 emission. Based on the energy demand theory, this paper analyzes the historical track of CO2 emissions of typical countries according to inference of cumulative CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions per capita and CO2 emission intensity, and then predicts CO2 emissions in the next 20 years. It is found that in 2030, cumulative CO2 emission, CO2 emission per capita and CO2 emission intensity in China will reach 12400 million ton, 8.5 ton and 0.36. As for the level of CO2 emission per capita, China is far below the level of developed countries, and the CO2 emission intensity of China will keep going down in the next 20 years. So it’s clear that China has already made and will continue to make a contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. |
| LI Xiao-ming,WANG An-jian,YU Wen-jia.2010.A Trend Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based on the Energy Demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):741-748. |
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