| 典型国家部门石油消费轨迹及对中国的启示 |
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| 关键词:oil sectorial oil consumption consumption track |
| 基金项目:地质调查项目(编号: N0702)；中央公益性院所基金项目(编号: YWF0906) |
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| 摘要: |
| An Analysis of Sectorial Oil Consumption Track in Typical Countries and Its Implications to China's Trend |
| Based on the track analysis of the sectorial oil consumption in developed countries, this paper systemically reveals the track of oil consumption in various sectors, i.e., industrial, commercial and residential sectors, which assume inverted "U"-shaped variations. The oil consumption peaks of the industrial sector are in the range of USD$10000~13000 per capita GDP, the consumption peaks of the residential sector is in the range of $11000-15000, and consumption peaks of the commercial sector is in the range of $15000-20000. The oil consumption of the transportation sector assumes “S”-shaped variation and accounts for 60% of the total oil consumption, and its peak is around $20000~22000 per capita GDP. The consumption peaks of industrial-residential- commercial-transport departments occur in the form of waves. According to the sectorial oil consumption tracks in developed countries in combination with China's oil consumption status, this paper holds that China's oil consumption sectors will show an upward trend. Also, an analysis of the transportation sector demonstrates that, if China extends the developed countries’ consumption path, the development will not be sustainable. Therefore, we must convert our development pattern to energy saving, science and technological innovation as soon as possible. |
| ZOU Yu,WANG Gao-shang,YU Wen-jia,LIN Jian.2010.An Analysis of Sectorial Oil Consumption Track in Typical Countries and Its Implications to China's Trend[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):666-672. |
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