| 基于“S”规律的中国钢需求预测 |
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| 关键词:steel demand S-shaped regularity index of prediction demand prediction |
| 基金项目:地质大调查项目(编号: N0702)；中央公益性院所基金项目(编号: K1009) |
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| 摘要: |
| The Prediction of China’s Steel Demand Based on S-shaped Regularity |
| This paper analyzes the peak of the steel consumption in typical developed countries during the process of industrialization in the light of the per capita consumption of the crude steel and per capita GDP S-shape rule. This paper assumes three scenarios based on the actual situation of China’s economic development environment, i.e., the high growth scenario, the medium growth scenario and the low growth scenario. It also predicts China's steel demand. It is concluded that the per capita consumption of the crude steel will reach 480~500 kg and the total consumption of China's crude steel will attain 670~700 million tons according to the high growth scenario. According to the medium growth scenario, the per capita consumption of the crude steel will be 430~470 kg and the total consumption of China's crude steel will amount to 600~650 million tons. Under the low growth scenario, the per capita consumption of the crude steel will reach 400~440 kg and the total consumption of China's crude steel will be 560~610 million tons. |
| GAO Xin-rui,WANG An-jian.2010.The Prediction of China’s Steel Demand Based on S-shaped Regularity[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):645-652. |
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