| 铜、铝需求“S”形规律的三个转变点剖析 |
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| 引用本文：陈其慎,王高尚,王安建.2010.铜、铝需求“S”形规律的三个转变点剖析[J].地球学报,31(5):659-665. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2010.05.07 |
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| 基金项目:公益性科研院所项目(编号: K1007)；地质调查项目(编号: N0702)；国家开发银行项目(编号: E0811) |
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| 中文摘要:本文分析了铜、铝人均消费“S”形轨迹的三个重要转变点; 找出了理论上铝的三个转变点出现时间, 指出铜和铝人均消费的三个重要转变点出现的时间比较接近, 铝略早于铜。以此为基础, 分析了我国未来铜、铝需求趋势, 发现，2020年前后,我国铜和铝将达到需求峰值, 届时需求量均将比目前水平增长1倍。 |
| 中文关键词:铜 铝 需求顶点 转变点 |
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| An Analysis of the Three Turning Points in the “S-shape” Rule of Copper and Aluminum Demand |
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| Abstract:This paper analyzes three key transition points for the copper and aluminum per capita consumption S-shape track. It figures out theoretically the time when those three transition points appear for aluminum and also points out that that it shares the same period with aluminum for copper per capita consumption to show the transition points, aluminum comes slightly earlier than copper. Base on this provision, the paper analyzes the copper and aluminum demand tendency in the future for our country and concluded that the demand for copper and aluminum demand will be on the summit around 2020, which will be double by then. |
| keywords:copper aluminum demand summit turning point |
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