| Abstract:Indium is a key raw material for solar photovoltaic thin film technology, and grasping the change law of indium consumption is not only a prerequisite for the scientific management of the indium industry, but also of great significance for achieving the dual carbon goal. Based on four energy transition pathways and two indium use intensities, this paper calculates the CIGS installed capacity and scrap volume from 2020 to 2050 using the dynamic material flow analysis method, and then predicts the indium demand trend, scrap volume and potential recovery volume in the photovoltaic field under eight scenarios. The results show that: (1) under the four energy transition pathways, the installed PV capacity in 2050 will be 8.3 times, 5.6 times, 6 times and 5.1 times that of 2023, respectively, and (2) the cumulative demand for indium will grow rapidly from 2023 to 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 37%, and from 2031 to 2050, the average annual growth rate will be 7%; (3) From 2015 to 2050, the cumulative scrap amount of indium in CIGS was 436-788 tons, but due to technical reasons, the role of scrapped CIGS in alleviating indium supply is difficult to reflect in the short term; (4) Relying solely on zinc concentrate smelting to extract primary indium will not be sufficient to meet the medium to long-term demand for indium. It is suggested to strengthen the investigation and evaluation of indium resources, find out the resource background, strengthen technical research, improve the utilization efficiency of indium resources and the level of recycled indium recycling, strengthen the research on the development and utilization of co-associated mines, and consolidate the domestic indium resource guarantee capacity in multiple ways. |
