| 未来我国气体能源发展动向研究 |
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| 引用本文：宋科余,龙涛,段红梅,陈其慎,张艳飞,郑国栋.2021.未来我国气体能源发展动向研究[J].地球学报,42(2):187-195. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2020.102602 |
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| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20160103; DD20190674);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(编号: 2017-ZD-15-05-01) |
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| 中文摘要:“十四五”期间我国能源需求增速将有所放缓, 但仍将处于高位, 随着经济社会的不断恢复以及环境问题的显现, 未来能源安全形势仍然严峻, 及早建立清洁、高效、安全、多元化的现代能源体系, 调整优化我国能源供给结构迫在眉睫。本文通过判断我国气体能源发展现状, 构建气体能源优先发展评价指标体系, 运用层次分析法与灰色关联度评价法对各气体能源进行对比分析得出, 消耗排放、燃料热值、国际合作、政策扶持、生产成本、资源潜力、生产排放等因素对各气体能源发展影响最大; 未来应优先发展致密气、页岩气、煤层气, 理性发展煤制气, 科学布局可燃冰开发规划; 建议加大气体能源勘探投入, 提高天然气供能比例, 摸清页岩气资源家底, 突破核心技术, 提升环保监督、安全生产意识, 优化统一现有政策。 |
| 中文关键词:气体能源 层次分析法 灰色关联度法 发展动向 |
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| Research on the Development Trend of China’s Gas Energy in the Future |
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| Abstract:During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China’s energy demand growth rate will slow down but will remain at a high level. With the continuous recovery of the economy and society and the emergence of environmental problems, the future energy security situation will remain severe, and the establishment of clean, efficient, safe and diversified modern energy system and the adjustment as well as optimization of China’s energy supply structure are imminent. Based on the judgment of the current status of gas energy development in China, this paper constructs an indicator system specifically for the evaluation of priority development of gas energy, and uses Analytic Hierarchy Process and gray correlation evaluation methods to make a comparatively analysis. The results show that from the perspective of indicator weights, factors such as consumption emissions, fuel calorific value, international cooperation, policy support, production costs, resource potential, production emissions and other factors have the greatest impact on the development of gas energy; from the perspective of the priority development sequence of gas energy, priority should be given to the development of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane, the rational development of coal gas, and the scientific layout of combustible ice development plans in addition to conventional natural gas. It is recommended to increase investment in gas energy exploration, increase the proportion of natural gas energy supply, find out shale gas resources, break through core technologies, improve environmental protection supervision and safety production awareness, and optimize and unify existing policies. |
| keywords:gas energy analytic hierarchy process gray correlation method development trend |
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