| 基于不确定性分析的低渗储层碳封存水力压裂参数优化研究 |
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| 引用本文：崔晓松,次惠岭,郭朝斌,李采,原文涛,房斌斌.2026.基于不确定性分析的低渗储层碳封存水力压裂参数优化研究[J].地球学报,47(2):421-432. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2026.011901 |
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| 基金项目:本文由山西省重点研发计划项目“山西省地下咸水层二氧化碳地质封存选址关键技术研究”(编号: 202102090301009)和山西省自然资源厅2023年度地质勘查项目(编号: 2023-1-29)联合资助。 |
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| 中文摘要:在“双碳”目标背景下, 深部咸水层碳封存作为关键的减排技术而至关重要。我国陆相沉积盆地低孔低渗特征制约了二氧化碳的可注入性, 限制了该技术的工程化应用。水力压裂是提高注入能力的有效手段, 但地质参数(如孔隙度、渗透率)的空间变异性与不确定性, 给压裂方案设计带来挑战。本研究以鄂尔多斯盆地大宁—吉县区块低渗咸水层为研究对象, 提出了一种融合地质不确定性的水力压裂参数概率优化路径, 主要包括: 1)基于文献数据量化了有利储层的孔隙度与渗透率的不确定性及相关性, 构建代表性储层物性集合; 2)通过数值模拟, 构建了压裂半径(Rf)和渗透率增强倍数(Ke)对地层安全约束下允许最大注入速率(Qs)的定量响应模型; 3)采用最大最小和均值-方差双重决策准则, 综合评价不同压裂方案的性能与稳健性。结果表明, 在工程可行参数范围内, Rf=250 m和Ke=250方案具有最大的最小注入效率(4.27 t/d), 而Rf=100 m和Ke=250方案在性能接近前者的同时, 因压裂规模更小而具备更低的工程风险, 是风险规避理念下的推荐方案。本研究为地质参数不确定性高条件下的压裂设计提供了可靠的概率优化框架, 为提高低渗储层可注性提供了兼顾效率与安全性的压裂设计策略, 且具有普适性, 有助于推动我国陆相盆地低渗储层碳封存工程的规模化部署。 |
| 中文关键词:咸水层碳封存 低孔低渗透储层 水力压裂 不确定性分析 概率优化 |
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| Optimization of Hydraulic Fracturing Parameters for Carbon Sequestration in Low-permeability Reservoirs Based on Uncertainty Analysis |
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| Abstract:Under the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, geological carbon dioxide (CO2) storage in deep saline aquifers has emerged as a critical emission reduction technology. However, the low-porosity and low-permeability characteristics typical of terrestrial sedimentary basins in China significantly constrain CO2 injectivity and impede the large-scale application of this technology. Hydraulic fracturing is an effective method for enhancing the injection capacity; however, spatial variability and uncertainty in geological parameters such as porosity and permeability complicate the design of fracturing strategies. This study focuses on a low-permeability saline aquifer within the Daning–Jixian block of the Ordos Basin and proposes a probabilistic optimization framework for fracturing parameters that incorporates geological uncertainty. This study involves, 1) quantifying the uncertainties and correlations in the porosity and permeability of favorable reservoir zones through literature research to construct representative reservoir conditions; 2) establishing a quantitative relationship between the fracture radius (Rf), permeability enhancement factor (Ke), and maximum allowable injection rate (Qs) under formation safety constraints via numerical simulation; 3) and applying a dual decision-making criterion based on the maximum-minimum and mean-variance criteria to comprehensively assess the performance and robustness of different fracturing schemes. The results indicate that the fracturing design with Rf=2 50 m and Ke=250 achieved the highest minimum injection efficiency (4.27 t/d). Meanwhile, the Rf=100 m and Ke=250 schemes, while exhibiting performances comparable to those of the former, is associated with lower engineering risks owing to its reduced fracture scale, rendering it a preferable candidate under a risk-averse strategy. This study contributes a robust probabilistic optimization framework for fracturing design under conditions of significant uncertainty in geological parameters, providing a practical strategy for enhancing CO2 injectivity in low-permeability reservoirs that balances injection efficiency against storage safety and exhibits strong generalizability. These findings offer valuable guidance and support for scaling-up carbon storage projects in low-permeability continental basins in China. |
| keywords:carbon storage in saline aquifers low-porosity and low-permeability reservoirs hydraulic fracturing uncertainty analysis probabilistic optimization |
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