| 新能源汽车产业链中含钴产品贸易网络供应风险传播研究 |
| 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：孙源辰,吴三忙,雷涯邻,何建武,李善同,张艳飞.2025.新能源汽车产业链中含钴产品贸易网络供应风险传播研究[J].地球学报,46(5):1021-1031. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2025.082704 |
| 摘要点击次数: 333 |
| 全文下载次数: 243 |
|
| 基金项目:地球深部探测与矿产资源勘查国家科技重大专项(编号: 2024ZD1002001)；国家自然科学基金(编号: 71773118; 72373136; 72433005) |
|
| 中文摘要:钴是生产新能源汽车电池的关键原材料之一, 含钴产品的国际贸易贯穿整个新能源汽车产业链, 但绝大多数国家钴矿的对外依存度极高, 导致国际社会对其供应风险存在普遍担忧。本文结合物质流与国际贸易数据构建新能源汽车产业链中含钴产品多层贸易网络, 并在此基础上采用级联失效模型模拟供应风险的传播过程, 分析风险传播特征与路径。结果表明: (1)根据新能源汽车产业链含钴产品贸易网络结构特征, 越往产业链下游, 贸易网络越紧密, 贸易参与国越广泛, 风险传播规模越大; (2)供应风险传播的主要路径沿“刚果金—中国—美日德”逐层放大, 上游风险向中游传导依赖刚果金—中国强关联节点, 而从中游向下游扩散则通过日本、美国等多个新能源汽车生产国; (3)中国在中游、下游具备极强的风险传导能力, 将分别影响70%、61%的贸易参与国, 同时在层内抗风险能力强, 但抵御来自上游的层间风险能力弱。本研究识别了新能源汽车产业链中含钴产品供应风险传播的关键节点与路径, 为构建产业链风险监督预警体系提供了理论参考。 |
| 中文关键词:钴 新能源汽车产业链 风险传播 贸易网络 级联失效 |
| |
| Supply Risk Propagation of Cobalt-containing Products Trade Network in the New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain |
|
|
| Abstract:Cobalt is a key raw material in battery production for new-energy vehicles (NEVs). The international trade in cobalt-containing products runs through the entire NEV industry chain; however, most countries are highly dependent on foreign cobalt mineral supplies, leading to widespread concerns over supply risks in the international community. This study constructed a multilayer trade network for cobalt-containing products in the NEV industry supply chain by integrating material flows and international trade data. Based on the network, a cascading failure model was employed to simulate the propagation of supply risks and analyze the characteristics and pathways of risk spread. The results indicate that (1) according to the structural characteristics of trade network for Co-containing products in the NEV industry chain, the trade network becomes denser, with a broader range of participating countries and larger risk propagation scale, as one moves downstream. (2) The main risk propagation pathway is amplified step-by-step along “Congo-Kinshasa-China-USA/Japan/Germany”. The upstream risks are transmitted midstream via strong connections between Congo-Kinshasa and China, whereas diffusion from midstream to downstream involves several NEV manufacturing countries, such as Japan and the USA. (3) China possesses strong risk transmission capabilities midstream and downstream, influencing 70% and 61% of trade participants, respectively. Although China exhibits strong intra-layer risk resistance, its ability to withstand upstream inter-layer risks from upstreak is weak. The present study identifies the key nodes and paths of supply risk propagation for Co-containing products in the NEV industry chain and provides a theoretical reference for the construction of a risk supervision and early warning system for the industry chain. |
| keywords:cobalt new energy vehicle industry chain risk propagation trade network cascading failure |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
|
|
|
|
