| 矿产资源供需系统演化机理探析——基于科技革命、能源转型等复合作用的视角 |
| 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：张艳飞,陈其慎,邢佳韵,龙涛,郑国栋,王琨,任鑫,李强,戢兴忠,赵红坤,李媚,宋丹.2025.矿产资源供需系统演化机理探析——基于科技革命、能源转型等复合作用的视角[J].地球学报,46(5):901-908. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2025.090201 |
| 摘要点击次数: 326 |
| 全文下载次数: 264 |
|
| 基金项目:深地国家科技重大专项项目(编号: 2024ZD1002000);中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20230040);国家自然科学面上基金项目(编号: 42271281) |
|
| 中文摘要:影响世界资源格局的三大因素分别为科技革命、能源转型和大国竞争, 分析三者复合作用对矿产资源系统的驱动作用, 对于深化矿产资源安全系统理论, 分析和研判其发展趋势意义重大。本文首先以“矿产资源安全巨系统”理论和“资源-产业”雁行式演进规律两大理论为基础, 构建了涵盖科技革命、能源转型、大国竞争作为三个关键影响因素的复合因素子系统、矿产资源需求子系统和矿产资源供应子系统的分析框架。并进一步提出根据主导产业变化, 分析矿产资源需求系统变化的新思路。分析认为: (1)能源转型通过创造新能源产业体系, 对矿产资源需求子系统的影响是系统性和颠覆性的, 其他两大因素更多通过该因素来对矿产资源需求子系统发生影响。通过新能源的生产、运输、储存和使用四大环节, 梳理出了新能源产业及其对应的不同矿产谱系。(2)从长时间尺度上, 科技革命是矿产资源需求系统演化的核心驱动作用, 本轮以人工智能为代表的科技革命将造成对能源需求的大幅增加, 但同时为能源转型带来了巨大挑战, 造成了能源转型及可能需要的矿产资源需求的不确定性。(3)大国竞争是人为不确定性的核心来源, 各国不同的能源转型路线选择, 造就了不同的矿产资源需求趋势。而矿产资源供应的本土化、区域化、盟友化趋势, 也已在此背景下处于不可逆转的加速演进中。 |
| 中文关键词:科技革命 能源转型 矿产资源安全系统 演化机理 复合作用 |
| |
| Analysis of the Evolution Mechanism of Mineral Resource Supply and Demand System: Based on the Perspective of Scientific and Technological Revolution and Energy Transformation |
|
|
| Abstract:Among the major powers, the three major factors influencing the world’s resource patterns are technological revolution, energy transition, and the game. Analyzing the driving effect of the combined effect of the three factors on the mineral resource system is important for deepening the theory of the mineral resource security system, analyzing and judging their development trends. Based on the two major theories of the “Mineral Resources Security Giant System” and the “Resource-industry” evolution law, this study first constructed an analytical framework that included a composite factor subsystem covering three key influencing factors: technological revolution, energy transition, and major power competition, as well as the mineral resources demand and the mineral resources supply subsystems. Further, we propose analyzing the changes in the mineral resource demand system based on the changes in leading industries. The analysis suggests that (1) energy transition, by creating a new energy industrial system, has a systematic and disruptive impact on the mineral resource demand subsystem. The other two major factors influence the mineral resource demand subsystem more frequently. The new energy industry and its corresponding mineral spectra were identified through the four major links of new energy production, transportation, storage, and use, which have been sorted out. (2) On a long-term scale, the technological revolution is the core driving force for the evolution of the mineral resource demand system. This technological revolution, represented by artificial intelligence, is expected to lead to a significant increase in energy demand. Simultaneously, it presents tremendous challenges to energy transition and causes uncertainty regarding energy transition and the possible demand for mineral resources. (3) Competition between major powers is the core source of artificial uncertainty. Different countries have formed different energy transition route and different patterns of mineral resource demand have been created. The trend of localization, regionalization, and alliances in the supply of mineral resources is also irreversible and accelerating, driven by this evolution against the backdrop. |
| keywords:technological revolution energy transition mineral resources security system evolution mechanism combined effects |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
|
|
|
|
