| “双碳”目标下中国光伏产业铟需求预测 |
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| 引用本文：周艳晶,王高尚.2024.“双碳”目标下中国光伏产业铟需求预测[J].地球学报,45(6):1033-1042. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2024.011601 |
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| 基金项目:自然资源部海底矿产资源重点实验室开放基金课题(编号: KLMMR-2022-G01) |
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| 中文摘要:铟是太阳能光伏薄膜技术的关键原材料, 把握铟的消费变化规律不仅是对铟产业科学管理的前提, 也对实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本文基于4种能源转型路径和2种铟使用强度, 采用动态物质流分析方法, 计算了2020—2050年CIGS装机容量和报废量, 进而预测8种情景下光伏领域对铟的需求趋势、报废量和潜在回收量。结果显示: (1)在4种能源转型路径下, 2050年光伏装机分别是2023年的8.3倍、5.6倍、 6倍和5.1倍; (2) 2023—2030年, 铟的累积需求将快速增长, 年均增速平均值为37%, 2031—2050年, 年均增速平均值为7%; (3) 2015—2050年, CIGS中铟的累积报废量为436~788 t, 但技术原因导致报废CIGS对缓解铟供应的作用短期内难以体现; (4)仅依靠锌精矿冶炼提取原生铟将不足以保障铟的中长期需求。建议加强铟资源调查评价, 摸清资源家底, 加强技术攻关, 提高铟资源利用效率和再生铟回收利用水平, 加强共伴生矿的开发利用研究, 多途径夯实国内铟资源保障能力。 |
| 中文关键词:双碳 铟需求 动态物质流 光伏产业 |
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| Indium Demand in China’s Photovoltaic Industry Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal |
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| Abstract:Indium is a key raw material for solar photovoltaic (PV) thin-film technology. Understanding the patterns of indium consumption is not only a prerequisite for scientifically managing the indium industry but also holds significant importance in realizing the dual carbon goals. Based on four energy transition pathways and two indium use intensities, this study calculates the CIGS installed capacity and scrap volume from 2020 to 2050 using the dynamic material flow analysis method. Subsequently, the indium demand trend, scrap volume, and potential recovery volume in the PV field are predicted under eight scenarios. The results show that (1) under the four aforementioned energy transition pathways, the installed PV capacity in 2050 will increase by factors of 8.3, 5.6, 6, and 5.1 with respect to that of 2023, respectively; (2) the cumulative demand for indium will grow rapidly from 2023 to 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 37%; from 2031 to 2050, the average annual growth rate will be 7%; (3) from 2015 to 2050, the cumulative scrap amount of indium in CIGS will be 436–788 tons; however, owing to technical reasons, the role of scrapped CIGS in alleviating indium supply is difficult to reflect in the short term; (4) relying solely on zinc concentrate smelting to extract primary indium will not be sufficient to meet the medium to long-term indium demand. It is suggested to strengthen the investigation and evaluation of indium resources, determine the resource background, promote technical research, improve the utilization efficiency of indium resources and the level of indium recycling, strengthen the research on development and utilization of co-associated mines, and consolidate the domestic indium resource guarantee capacity in multiple ways. |
| keywords:dual carbon indium demand dynamic material flow photovoltaic industry |
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