| 全球镍矿贸易网络的供应风险传播研究 |
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| 引用本文：王星星,钟维琼,朱德朋.2023.全球镍矿贸易网络的供应风险传播研究[J].地球学报,44(2):361-368. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2022.111902 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目“中国关键金属矿产清单厘定与风险评估”(编号: 92162321);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用”(编号: 72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(编号: 71991480);其课题5“新时代中国战略性关键矿产资源全球治理体系研究”(编号: 71991485) |
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| 中文摘要:镍是全球能源低碳转型所需的关键金属之一。近年来受资源保护、地缘政治冲突、突发事件等的影响, 镍供应风险随时可能发生。因此, 了解不同国家供应危机的传播过程和影响强度, 对于贸易国来说非常重要。为了探讨这一问题, 我们使用2020年的数据构建了全球镍矿贸易网络, 并在此基础上建立了级联失效模型。因此, 本文不仅模拟了供应风险在贸易网络中的传播过程, 而且导出了一个雪崩网络用来分析危机传播动力学的结构特征。结果表明: (1)影响供应危机传播过程动力学的一个决定性参数r=7时, 不同国家镍矿供应风险雪崩规模之间的差异性能够良好体现。(2)不同国家发生供应风险时, 出口量最大的国家不一定影响最多的国家。(3)只有菲律宾的供应短缺能引发中国的镍矿供应危机。(4)在级联过程中, 间接链路在风险的传播中起着关键作用。 |
| 中文关键词:镍矿贸易 供应风险 危机传播 复杂网络 级联失效 |
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| Research on the Supply Risk Propagation of the Global Nickel Ore Trade Network |
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| Abstract:Nickel is a key metal in the global energy transition to low carbon. In recent years, nickel supply risks have occurred periodically due to resource protection, geopolitical conflicts, and emergencies. Therefore, it is important for trading countries to understand the transmission process and impact intensity of supply crises in various countries. To explore this issue, we constructed a global nickel mining trade network and a cascade failure model using data from 2020. This study simulated the transmission process of supply risk in the nickel ore trade network and derived an avalanche network to analyze the structural characteristics of crisis transmission dynamics. The results show that: (1) when r (a decisive parameter affecting the dynamics of the supply crisis propagation process) is equal to seven, the difference in the avalanche scale of a nickel supply crisis in various countries can be well reflected. (2) When a supply crisis occurs in various countries, those countries with the highest exports do not necessarily have the strongest influence. (3) Only a shortage in the Philippines could trigger a nickel supply crisis in China. (4) In the cascade process, indirect links play a key role in crisis propagation. |
| keywords:nickel mining trade supply crisis crisis propagation complex network cascade failure |
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