| 全球工业领域白银需求预测 |
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| 引用本文：景锦,李鹏远,李天骄.2023.全球工业领域白银需求预测[J].地球学报,44(2):305-314. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2022.112302 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(编号: 92162321; 71991485; 71991480; 72088101);中国地质调查局地质调查二级项目(编号: DD2022179 |
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| 中文摘要:在全球能源低碳转型的背景下, 白银不仅广泛应用于电子电气、钎焊合金等传统工业领域以及首饰银器和投资领域, 更是与光伏、电动汽车和5G技术等绿色清洁能源领域密切相关。本研究采用部门分析法分别预测在既定政策情景(STEPS)、宣布承诺情景(APS)和2050年净零排放情景(NZE)三种情景下光伏、电动汽车领域的白银需求, 并使用ARIMA模型分析传统工业领域需求, 预测至2035年全球白银需求。研究结果表明, 三种情景下, 2035年工业领域对白银的需求量分别为19 360 t、21 621 t和26 894 t。在中情景下(APS情景)低碳领域白银需求量将在2031年超过传统工业领域白银需求量; 在高情景下(NZE情景)低碳领域需求量将在2024年超过传统工业领域白银需求量。 |
| 中文关键词:白银 低碳技术 需求预测 部门分析法 ARIMA模型 |
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| Forecast of Global Industrial Silver Demand |
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| Abstract:In the context of global transition to low-carbon energy, silver is not only widely used in electrical and electronics, brazing alloys, and soldering and other traditional industrial, jewelry, and investment fields, but is also closely related to green and clean energy fields, such as photovoltaic solar energy, electric vehicles, and 5G technology. In this study, we used sector analysis to forecast silver demand in photovoltaic and electric vehicles under three scenarios: stated policies, announced pledges (APS), and net zero emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenarios. Additionally, we used the ARIMA model to analyze traditional industrial and forecast global industrial silver demands up to 2035. The results showed that under the three scenarios, the industrial silver demand in 2035 will be 19 360 t, 21 621 t, and 26 894 t. In the medium scenario (APS), the demand for silver in the low-carbon sector will exceed that in the traditional industrial sector in 2031. In the high scenario (NZE), the demand for silver in the low-carbon sector will exceed that in the traditional industrial sector by 2024. |
| keywords:silver low-carbon technology demand prediction sector analysis method ARIMA model |
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