| 基于恒等式原理的中国钢铁工业铌资源需求预测研究 |
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| 引用本文：李天骄,刘新茹,刘越颀,袁小晶,李颖,李建武.2023.基于恒等式原理的中国钢铁工业铌资源需求预测研究[J].地球学报,44(2):286-296. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2022.121902 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目“中国关键金属矿产清单厘定与风险评估”(编号: 92162321);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用”(编号: 72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(编号: 71991480)及其课题5“新时代中国战略性关键矿产资源全球治理体系研究”(编号: 71991485) |
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| 中文摘要:铌主要应用于钢铁的生产, 含铌钢材广泛应用于航空航天、海洋工程、汽车与交通、能源化工及工程机械等高端制造领域。中国是当前世界第一大铌资源消费国, 供需矛盾极为突出, 严重依赖国外资源。为保障中国铌资源供应安全与钢铁产业结构调整提供依据, 本文基于恒等式原理构建了钢铁工业铌资源需求预测模型, 参考发达国家钢铁工业铌资源消费经验, 对中国钢铁工业铌需求进行了定量预测。研究结果表明: (1)中国铌工业和钢铁工业现代化程度明显落后于发达国家; (2)典型发达国家含铌钢产量占粗钢产量比例从最低值增长至最高值呈现出一定的规律性; (3)到2030年, 中国钢铁工业铌资源需求将持续增长, 2025年钢铁工业铌资源需求为3.3~5.2万t、2030年为4.0~7.1万t, 中国铌资源供应安全面临严峻挑战。为此, 本文建议持续扩大中国铌资源海外权益产量、提高国内储量、加强铌资源提取和二次资源回收技术研发来保障国内外铌资源稳定的供应, 同时推进国内铌相关产业建设。 |
| 中文关键词:铌资源 钢铁工业 恒等式原理 需求预测 资源安全 |
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| Demand Forecast Research of Niobium Resources in China’s Iron and Steel Industry Based on the Principle of Identity |
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| Abstract:Niobium is mainly used in steel production, and niobium-containing steel is widely used in high-end manufacturing fields such as aerospace, ocean engineering, automobile and transportation, engineering machinery, and energy and chemical industries. China is currently the largest niobium consumer globally. The contradiction between supply and demand is extremely prominent in China, which results in a heavy dependence on foreign supplies. To provide a basis for ensuring the supply security of niobium in China and the adjustment of the steel industry structure, this study constructs a prediction model of niobium demand in the steel industry based on the principle of identity and makes a quantitative prediction of niobium demand in China's steel industry by referring to the experience of niobium consumption in the steel industry of developed countries. The results show that: (1) the modernization of China’s niobium and steel industries lags behind that of developed countries; (2) in typical developed countries, the proportion of niobium-containing steel output to crude steel output increases from the lowest to the highest, showing a certain regularity; (3) the demand for niobium in China’s iron and steel industry will continue to grow, the demand for niobium in the iron and steel industry will be 33 to 52 thousand tons in 2025, and 40 to 71 thousand tons in 2030. Therefore, China’s niobium supply security is facing severe challenges. This study suggests the continuous expansion of China's overseas niobium equity production, expansion of domestic reserves, strengthened research and development of niobium extraction and secondary recovery technology to ensure the stable supply of niobium at home and abroad, and promotion of domestic niobium-related industries. |
| keywords:niobium iron and steel industry identity principle demand forecasting resource security |
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