| 基于气候情景的岩溶断陷盆地2020—2050年植被动态变化模拟预测 |
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| 引用本文：李丹,庄义琳,吴秀芹.2021.基于气候情景的岩溶断陷盆地2020—2050年植被动态变化模拟预测[J].地球学报,42(3):435-443. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2020.082901 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(编号: 2016YFC0502500; 2016YFC0502506);国家自然科学基金项目(41671080) |
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| 中文摘要:岩溶断陷盆地作为我国西南部重要生态脆弱区和生态安全屏障区, 生态价值不可估量。其独特的植被生态系统对气候变化十分敏感, 探讨在未来全球变暖的必然趋势下断陷盆地植被变化趋势, 能为进一步了解岩溶断陷盆地植被变化的气候驱动机制提供了重要依据。本研究基于2001—2016年间气象数据集和NDVI时间序列数据, 利用TS非参数趋势分析法对未来2020—2050年两种RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways)未来气候情景下的NDVI值进行预测, 开展了不同气候变化背景下断陷盆地未来植被的可能演变趋势分析。结果表明: 相对于基准期(2001—2016年), 在不同典型浓度路径(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)情景下, 断陷盆地气候整体呈持续增温增湿趋势, 且植被NDVI也有一定的升高。综合分析两种情景下的NDVI变化共性趋势发现: 青藏高原东南缘木里河谷地区温度和降水量升高缓慢, 区域性干旱增强, 植被出现退化, 是未来断陷盆地植被修复的难点地区; 而云贵两省边界地区温度和降水涨幅迅速, 未来植被改善明显, 是植被修复成果的重点保护区。 |
| 中文关键词:RCPs NDVI 岩溶 断陷盆地 |
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| Simulation and Prediction of Vegetation Dynamics in the Karst Faulted Basin from 2020 to 2050 in Climate Scenarios |
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| Abstract:As an important ecologically fragile area and an ecological security barrier area in southwestern China, the karst faulted basin has immeasurable ecological value. The unique vegetation ecosystem in the karst faulted basin is very sensitive to climate change. So, discussing the trend of vegetation changes under the inevitable trend of the future global warming can provide an important basis of the climate driving mechanism of vegetation changes to develop further understanding in karst faulted basins. Based on the meteorological dataset and NDVI time series data from 2001 to 2016, this study used Theil Sen Median analysis method to predict two RCPs scenarios’ NDVI from 2020 to 2050, and analyzed the future vegetation evolution law in the study area under different climate changes scenarios. The results show that, relative to the baseline period (2001–2016), under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate in the faulted basin continues to increase in temperature and humidity, and the vegetation NDVI also increases to a certain extent. Analyzing the common trends of NDVI changes under two climate scenarios, the authors found that the temperature and precipitation in the Muli River Valley on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau increase slowly, the regional drought risk increases, and the vegetation begins to degrade, suggesting that it is a difficult area for vegetation restoration in the future. The temperature and precipitation in the border area between Yunnan and Guizhou provinces are both rising rapidly, and the vegetation will greatly improve in the future. It is a key protection area to prevent vegetation degradation. |
| keywords:RCPs NDVI karst faulted basins |
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