| 后疫情时代全球石油供需格局研究 |
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| 引用本文：龙涛,陈其慎,陈程,于汶加,陈升立,邢佳韵,郑国栋,王琨,张硕.2021.后疫情时代全球石油供需格局研究[J].地球学报,42(2):273-278. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2020.102804 |
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| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20190674; DD20160103);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(编号: 2017-ZD-15-05-01) |
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| 中文摘要:2017年以来, 全球石油消费持续疲软, 消费增速呈逐渐下降的趋势, 新冠肺炎疫情对石油需求的打击更是“雪上加霜”。本文回顾了疫情发生以来国际原油价格及大型油气公司股票价格的走势, 探讨了疫情对全球石油需求和供应市场的影响, 研判了短期及中长期全球石油供需格局, 得出了三点结论: (1)疫情对全球石油需求产生重大冲击, 预计2020年全球石油需求较2019年将下降5%, 未来随着全球经济逐步恢复, 全球石油消费将缓慢回升, 预计到2030年全球石油消费将达到峰值48.7亿t; (2)未来3～5年, 全球石油产量将大于需求量, 全球石油市场供大于求的局面仍将持续; (3)中长期来看, 若国际原油价格持续在低价位震荡, 将会造成上游勘探开发投入不足, 英国、俄罗斯及亚洲等国家的部分老油田产量将持续下滑, 全球石油市场将趋紧。 |
| 中文关键词:全球 石油 后疫情时代 需求趋势 供需格局 |
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| Research on the New Pattern of Global Oil Supply and Demand after the Pandemic |
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| Abstract:Since 2017, global oil consumption has been persistently weak, and the growth rate of consumption has been gradually declining. The impact of COVID-19 on oil demand has been "even worse". This paper reviews the trends of international crude oil prices and stock prices of large oil and gas companies since the outbreak of the epidemic, explores the impact of the epidemic on global oil demand and supply markets, studies the short-term and mid-to-long-term global oil supply and demand patterns, and draws three conclusions: firstly, the epidemic has had a major impact on global oil demand, which is expected to drop by 5% in 2020 compared with 2019. In the future, with the gradually recovery of the global economy, global oil consumption will slowly recover, and it is estimated that global oil consumption will reach a peak of 4.87 billion tons by 2030. Secondly, in the next 3~5 years, global oil production will be greater than the demand, and the global oil market will remain oversupplied for a long time to come. Thirdly, in the medium and long term, if the international crude oil price continues to fluctuate at a low price, it will cause insufficient investment in upstream exploration and development, the output of some old oil fields in the UK, Russia, Asian countries and other countries will continue to decline, and the global oil market will become tighter. |
| keywords:global oil post-epidemic era demand trend supply and demand pattern |
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