| “二元消费”影响下的镍供需形势分析 |
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| 引用本文：邢佳韵,张晓鹤,陈其慎,于汶加,齐刚,姜雅,茹存一,任鑫.2021.“二元消费”影响下的镍供需形势分析[J].地球学报,42(2):251-257. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2020.110202 |
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| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20160103; DD20190674);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(编号: 2017-ZD-15-05-01) |
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| 中文摘要:不锈钢产业是镍最大的消费领域, 对全球镍消费趋势起决定性作用。近年来, 电动汽车产业逐渐发展, 动力电池对镍需求也逐渐得到重视, 该领域的镍消费普遍被认为是最具发展潜力的镍消费领域。本文通过对镍需求的历史和现状进行分析, 对未来不锈钢及电动汽车领域等重要部门的镍需求进行了展望, 认为未来镍需求将由2019年243万t增长至2030年445万t, 其中不锈钢领域仍为其第一大消费领域, 电池领域上升为第二大消费领域; 通过梳理全球镍资源情况及供应开发情况, 认为由于受到疫情冲击, 2020年镍矿供需形势紧张状态将有所缓解, 但随着未来疫情好转, 未来几年内镍仍将处于供需紧张状态; 此外, 通过梳理镍供应链条, 本文认为市场对硫酸镍以及硫化镍矿需求未来有望持续增长, 这对镍盐价格将形成有力支撑, 对推动全球红土镍矿湿法产能建设也将形成一定促进作用。 |
| 中文关键词:镍需求 不锈钢 电动汽车 硫酸镍 |
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| An Analysis of Nickel Supply and Demand Situation under the Influence of “Dual Consumption” |
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| Abstract:The stainless steel industry is the largest consumption area of nickel, and plays a decisive role in the global nickel consumption trend. In recent years, the electric vehicle industry has gradually developed, and the demand for nickel for power batteries has gradually gained attention. Nickel consumption in battery field is generally regarded as the most potential field. Based on the analysis of the history and current situation of nickel demand, this paper predicts that the future nickel demand for nickel will increase from 2.43 million tons in 2019 to 4.45 million tons in 2030, of which the stainless steel sector will be still the largest consumption area, and the battery sector will rise to the second largest consumption area. In combination with the global nickel resources and supply development, this paper points out that, due to the impact of the coronavirus, the tight supply and demand situation of nickel ore will be eased in 2020, but as the coronavirus will be alleviated in the future, nickel will still be in tight supply and demand in the next few years. In addition, through analyzing the nickel supply chain, this paper believes that market demand for nickel sulfate and nickel sulfide ore is expected to continue to grow in the future, which will form a strong support for the price of nickel salt, and will also promote hydrometallurgy production capacity development of global laterite nickel ore wet method. |
| keywords:nickel demand stainless steel battery vehicle nickel sulfate |
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