| 京津冀地区铁矿石需求预测 |
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| 引用本文：贾逸卿,张艳飞,陈小荣,陈其慎,龙涛,齐刚,陈升立.2021.京津冀地区铁矿石需求预测[J].地球学报,42(2):217-222. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2020.102603 |
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| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目(编号: DD20160103; DD20190674);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(编号: 2017-ZD-15-05-01) |
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| 中文摘要:京津冀是我国钢铁生产加工的重要区域, 其铁矿石需求一直是该地区钢铁产业发展的热点问题。本文利用“S”形预测法, 在中国粗钢供需预测基础上, 参照该地区粗钢产量的全国占比和生铁粗钢比, 重点测算了河北省生铁产量和铁矿石需求量, 进而预测未来京津冀地区的铁矿石需求量。预测2025年、2030年和2035年京津冀地区的铁矿石需求量分别为3.42亿t、3.02亿t和2.68亿t, 需求的峰值点在2022年左右, 届时需求约为3.81亿t。据此, 提出尽早布局保障铁矿石供应安全等建议。 |
| 中文关键词:京津冀 铁矿石 需求预测 “S”形 |
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| Forecast of Iron Ore Demand in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region |
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| Abstract:The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is an important region for steel production and processing in China, and the demand for iron ore has always been a hot issue in the development of the steel industry in this region. This paper uses the “S”-shaped forecasting method on the basis of China's crude steel supply and demand forecasts, with reference to the national proportion of production of crude steel in this region and the proportion of pig iron crude steel, and focuses on calculating the pig iron production and iron ore demand in Hebei Province and then predicting the future iron ore demand in Hebei area. It is predicted that the iron ore demand in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in 2025, 2030 and 2035 will be 342 million tons, 302 million tons and 268 million tons respectively. The peak demand will be around 2022, when the demand will be about 381 million tons. On such a basis, suggestions have been made for ensuring the safety of iron ore supply in early deployment. |
| keywords:Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region iron ore demand forecast “S” shape |
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