| 矿产资源开发利用上线划定方法与应用研究 |
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| 引用本文：刘超,陈甲斌,胡聪.2021.矿产资源开发利用上线划定方法与应用研究[J].地球学报,42(2):167-178. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2020.072001 |
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| 基金项目:自然资源部部门预算项目“矿产资源战略2035研究”(编号: 121102000000180048);“压覆矿产审批管理研究及支撑体系建设”(编号: 121102000000180052);世界银行贷款资助项目“提高中国能源资源利用效率的政策;措施研究”(编号: A14-2018) |
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| 中文摘要:加快构建自然(矿产)资源上线, 实行资源总量管理, 是资源领域贯彻落实中央关于生态文明建设和实现经济转型发展的具体措施。本文分析了矿产资源开发利用上线划定的影响因素, 引入开发利用强度和开发利用强度指数, 构建了开发利用强度指标体系。以大宗战略性矿产铁矿为例, 运用层次分析法对2009—2018年我国铁矿开发利用强度进行了评价, 计算并划定了铁矿开发利用强度指数上线。构建了铁矿开发利用上线模型, 并在分析钢铁产业发展趋势的基础上基于合理假设划定了未来我国铁矿开发利用上线, 研究结果表明, 到2020年、2025年、2030年和2035年, 我国铁矿石开发利用上线分别为9.03亿吨、8.62亿吨、8.21亿吨和7.9亿吨。 |
| 中文关键词:生态文明 战略性矿产 开发利用强度 开发利用上线 |
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| Research on the Method and Application of Upper Limit Demarcation of Mineral Resources Development and Utilization |
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| Abstract:Accelerating the construction of natural (mineral) resources upper limit and implementing total resources management are the specific measures for the implementation of the central government's ecological civilization construction and the realization of economic transformation and development in the field of resources. In this paper, the authors analyzed the influencing factors of the upper limit demarcation of mineral resources development and utilization, introduced the index of development and utilization intensity, and constructed the development and utilization intensity index system. Taking the bulk strategic mineral iron ores as an example, the authors evaluated the intensity of iron ore development and utilization in China from 2009 to 2018 using AHP, and calculated as well as demarcated the upper limit index of iron ore development and utilization intensity. Then the authors established the upper limit model of iron ore development and utilization, and demarcated the iron ore development and utilization of China in the future based on the analysis of the development trend of iron and steel industry and reasonable hypothesis. The results show that, by 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035, the upper limit of iron ore development and utilization will be 903 million tons, 862 million tons, 821 million tons and 790 million tons respectively. |
| keywords:ecological civilization strategic mineral resources development and utilization intensity development and utilization upper limit |
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