我国西部“五江一河”可供跨流域调取的水量究竟有多少?——二评“红旗河工程”构想
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引用本文:赵希涛,魏乐军.2019.我国西部“五江一河”可供跨流域调取的水量究竟有多少?——二评“红旗河工程”构想[J].地球学报,40(3):492-506.
DOI:10.3975/cagsb.2019.043001
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作者单位E-mail
赵希涛 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 xitao_zhao@sina.com 
魏乐军 中国地质科学院 2547680047@qq.com 
中文摘要:以青藏高原南部为主体的我国西部大江大河, 可供跨流域调取的水资源量究竟有多少?是决定向西北干旱区调水成功与否的前提条件之一。因此, 本文关注的焦点是: 我国西部诸江河究竟有多少水资源量?能否达到“红旗河”构想的每年600亿m3的调水量?本文依据各类文献资料中有关“红旗河”拟取水的“五江一河”各节点上、下游水文站及相关水电站的多年平均径流量及年际变化数据, 估算并厘定出各取水节点的年平均水资源量为: 雅鲁藏布江600×108 m3, 帕隆藏布与易贡藏布合计320×108 m3, 怒江 320×108 m3, 澜沧江200×108 m3, 金沙江313×108 m3, 雅砻江250×108 m3和大渡河210×108 m3。按照S4679课题组和王浩院士所给出的国际通行的20%跨流域调水比例或21%的“红旗河”标准, 本文匡算出“五江一河”理想的可调取水量为442.6×108 m3或464.7×108 m3, 不足S4679课题组构想的600×108 m3调水量的78%。如果南水北调西线规划得以实施, 则“红旗河”难以从金沙江、雅砻江和大渡河这三个节点全额调水, 长江上源只有大渡河(18.5~20.6)×108 m3的水量可资利用。这种情形下, 本文匡算出可供“红旗河”调取的总水量为(288~323.0)×108 m3, 只有S4679课题组构想调水量的大约一半, 充其量不到54%。
中文关键词:S4679课题组  红旗河  五江一河  年径流量  可调水量
 
How Much Water Can be Inter-basin Transferred from “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” in West China: The Second Comment on the Concept of “Hongqi River Project”
Abstract:The amount of water resources that can be transferred from the major rivers in West China, mainly in the south of the Tibet Plateau, is one of the preconditions for the success of water transfer to the northwest arid region. This paper therefore focuses on the problems as to how much water resources do the rivers in the West China have, and is there 60 billion m3 of transferable water available per year as envisioned by the “Hongqi River Project”. Based on the multi-year average runoff and interannual variation data of the up-and-down stream hydrological stations of the “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers” nodes, which are expected to support water for the “Hongqi River”, this paper estimates and determines the annual average water volume of each node as follows: the Yarlung Zangbo River is 600×108 m3, the Parlung Zangbo and the Yigong Zangbo River 320×108 m3, the Nujiang River 320×108 m3, the Lancang River 200×108 m3, the Jinsha River 313×108 m3, the Yalong River 250×108 m3 and the Dadu River 210×108 m3. According to the inter-basin water transfer ratio of 20% (international standard) or 21% (the “Hongqi River” standard), given by S4679 research group and Academician WANG Hao, this paper calculates the amount of ideal transferable water of the “Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers”, and the result is 442.6×108 m3 or 464.7×108 m3, which is less than 78% of the 600×108 m3 conceived by the S4679 research group. If the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is implemented, it is difficult for the “Hongqi River” to transfer water in full from the three nodes of the Jinsha River, the Yalong River and the Dadu River. Only (18.5~20.6)×108 m3 of water is available in the Dadu River at the upper source of the Yangtze River. In this case, the total amount of water available for the “Hongqi River” is (288~323.0)×108 m3, only about half (less than 54%) of water conceived by the S4679 research group.
keywords:S4679 research group  Hongqi River  Five-Jiang and One-He Rivers  annual runoff  transferable water
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