| 中国钼矿资源供需预测 |
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| 引用本文：张照志,王贤伟,张剑锋,江光宇,范青东.2017.中国钼矿资源供需预测[J].地球学报,38(1):69-76. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2017.01.11 |
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| 基金项目:国家国际科技合作专项“矿产资源需求预测和可供性分析技术研究”项目(编号: 2014DFG22170) |
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| 中文摘要:本文在对我国钼矿成矿地质条件、资源储量、开发利用现状、产业与市场进行分析的基础上, 分析了我国钼矿资源的特点及产业发展趋势。利用矿产品部门消费法和回归分析法, 对我国2020年、 2025年和2030年钼矿资源性产品的需求量(金属量, 下同)和产量(能)进行了预测。预测结果表明: 2020年、2025年和2030年我国钼矿消费量分别为: 8.26~8.3万吨、8.77~9.0万吨、9.22~9.5万吨; 产量(能)分别为: 12万吨、10万吨和9.5万吨。研究表明: 我国钼矿资源储量大, 以斑岩型矿床为主, 品位低(0.056%), 高品位(Mo≥0.12%)的保有资源储量占比不足1/5, 单矿石可选性好; 在一段时间内仍将维持供大于求的格局, 钼精矿产能利用率持续降低。为此, 本文提出通过实施严格控制钼矿开采总量、提高环保准入门槛, 以及去产能化等对策建议, 解决我国钼矿资源产业中存在的问题。本文研究结论对我国钼矿资源产业可持续发展战略制定等具有重要的参考价值。 |
| 中文关键词:中国 钼矿资源 供需形势 供需预测 |
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| The Prediction of Molybdenum Mineral Demand and Supply in China |
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| Abstract:In this paper, the authors analyzed the characteristics and development trend of China’s molybdenum resources in the light of the geological conditions of molybdenum mineralization, resources and reserves, development and utilization status, industry, and market. Minerals sector consumption and regression analysis were used to predict China’s 2020, 2025 and 2030 demand for and supply of molybdenum resource products (output). Forecast results for China’s molybdenum consumptions in 2020, 2025, 2030 are 8.26~8.3 ten thousand tons, 8.77~9.0 ten thousand tons and 9.22~9.5 ten thousand tons respectively, and the outputs are 12 ten thousand tons, 10 ten thousand tons and 9.5 ten thousand tons respectively. Researches indicate considerable reserves of molybdenum ore resources in China, dominated by porphyry deposits characterized by lower grade (0.056%), with the high grade (Mo≥0.12%) reserves of the resources accounting for less than 1/5; nevertheless, washability of single ore is good. The pattern of supply exceeding demand will remain for some time, and molybdenum concentrate capacity utilization will continue to decrease. Therefore, through the implementation of strict control of molybdenum mining and raising of environmental access threshold as well as the control of the production capacity and some other measures, the problems in China’s molybdenum mineral resources industry might be solved. The conclusions put forward by the authors have important reference value for the formulation of sustainable development strategy of China’s molybdenum resources industry. |
| keywords:China molybdenum supply and demand demand forecasting |
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