| 未来20年印度资源需求预测及中国应对策略研究 |
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| 引用本文：李晓明,王安建.2017.未来20年印度资源需求预测及中国应对策略研究[J].地球学报,38(1):45-53. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2017.01.08 |
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| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目“中国能源与矿产资源安全支持平台建设与综合研究”(编号: 12120115056901)；“中国矿产资源全球配置综合研究与数据库支持平台建设”(编号: 12120113091800) |
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| 中文摘要:印度已经成为全球重要的国家之一。文章系统分析了印度的人口、经济发展特点, 印度在过去发展过程中能源、铁、铜、铝资源的消费历史。并选用了合理的经济分析模型、资源需求预测方法, 参考权威机构的研究成果, 如资源需求“S”形规律、“GDP增速‘钟’形规律”以及格罗宁根研究中心(简称GGDC)、世界银行等机构的数据, 科学、合理地预测了印度人口、经济及资源需求。认为: 1)在工业化的带动下, 印度经济具有再创神话的潜力; 2)印度对能源、铁、铜、铝的需求将随着工业化进程的推进而快速上升, 印度将成为继中国后拉动全球资源需求的“新引擎”; 3)印度发展不仅带给我国产业升级带来了新机遇, 同时也是我国强有力的竞争者, 比如在资源获取方面的竞争。因此我国企业应加强自身的核心竞争力, 在印度发展的过程中获得好的机会成长。 |
| 中文关键词:印度资源需求 S形规律 应对策略 |
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| A Study of the Prediction of Resources Demand and Economy of India and China’s Coping Strategies in the Upcoming 20 Years |
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| Abstract:India has been becoming one of the important countries in the world. In this paper, several related factors were systematically analyzed, such as population, characteristics of the economy and the consumption history of energy, iron, copper, aluminum in India. Reasonable economic analyzing models, methods of energy demand prediction and reliable data sets form the authority in this field were used to predict the development of population, expansion of economy and resources demand of India, on the basis of such aspects as the principle of GDP growth in ‘bell’ shape, principle of S shape, and data sets from World Bank. The following conclusions has been reached: 1) The economy of India might recreate the legendary of magical development with the increasing industrialization. 2) The demand of natural resources like energy, iron, copper, aluminum in India would be growing dramatically with the increasing industrialization, which means that India would succeed China and become the new engine for the resources demand in the world. 3) There exist not only new opportunities for upgrade of industries in China due to the development of India but also a touch competitor in future, especially for the demand of natural resources in international market. Therefore, Chinese companies have to build up their own core competitiveness and do their best to improve themselves with the development of India. |
| keywords:India resource demand S shape principle coping strategies |
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