| 工业部门的终端能源消费“S”形模型研究 |
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| 引用本文：刘固望,王安建.2017.工业部门的终端能源消费“S”形模型研究[J].地球学报,38(1):30-36. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2017.01.06 |
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| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质矿产调查评价专项“能源安全综合研究与动态跟踪评价”(编号: 12120115057001)；国家国际科技合作专项项目“矿产资源需求预测和可供性分析技术研究”(编号: 2014DFG22170) |
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| 中文摘要:工业部门作为终端能源消费中三大主要部门之一, 对经济发展具有重要作用。本文系统分析了 15个发达经济体100多年来工业部门终端能源消费与人口和经济发展(GDP)的关系, 发现随着人均GDP的增长, 工业部门的人均终端能源消费显现缓慢增长、加速增长、减速增长到零增长或负增长的“S”形轨迹, 并可分为高、中、低三个类型。通过重点解剖美、日、德、法和意大利等典型国家工业部门终端能源消费与经济发展的历史, 标定了不同类型“S”形曲线的起飞点、转折点和零增长点, 讨论了工业部门终端能源消费与能源消费强度、二产比例、城市化率和人均钢铁消费的内在联系, 建立了“S”形曲线的一般性数学模型。工业部门终端能源消费与经济发展定量关系的确定对于国家, 特别是发展中国家把握工业化过程能源消费趋势、预测能源需求和制定相关能源政策具有重要意义。 |
| 中文关键词:工业部门 终端能源消费 经济发展 “S”形模型 |
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| S-curve Model of End-use Energy Consumption in Industrial Sector |
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| Abstract:The industrial sector has become one of the three main sectors of end-use energy consumption and has been playing an important role in economic development. This paper systematically analyzed the relationship between end-use energy consumption in the industrial sector and population and economic development (GDP) using data obtained over 100 years in 15 developed countries or regions. The results show that, with the growth of GDP per capita, end-use energy consumption per capita in industrial sector shows an S-shaped track like “slow growth-accelerating growth-decelerating growth-zero growth or negative growth”, and can be divided into high, medium and low types. Based on the anatomy of the history of end-use energy consumption in industrial sector and economic development in typical countries such as the USA, Japan, Germany, France and Italy, the authors calibrated take-off point, turning point and zero growth point on different S-types and discussed the internal connection between end-use energy consumption in industrial sector and energy consumption intensity in industrial sector, percentage of the secondary industry, urbanization and crude steel consumption per capita. Finally, a general mathematical model of the S-curve was established. The establishment of the quantitative relationship between end-use energy consumption in industrial sector and economic development is considered to be of strategic importance for a country, especially for a developing country, in such aspects as grasping the trend of energy consumption in the process of industrialization, forecasting the energy demand, and formulating the relevant energy policy. |
| keywords:industrial sector end-use energy consumption GDP S-curve model |
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