| 全球矿产资源需求周期与趋势 |
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| 引用本文：王高尚,代 涛,柳群义.2017.全球矿产资源需求周期与趋势[J].地球学报,38(1):11-16. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2017.01.03 |
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| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目“中国重要能源与矿产资源物质流综合研究”(编号: 12120115057601)；“中国能源与矿产资源安全支持平台建设与综合研究”(编号: 1212331599028) |
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| 中文摘要:依据矿产资源需求“S”形理论原理, 按照经济发展程度把全球各国划分为4四个国家集团和3个典型国家, 以1950—2014年钢、铜、铅、锌消费量和GDP总量为对象, 概略论述了全球资源消费的3个周期, 系统分析了各国家集团在不同周期对全球资源消费增长的贡献率, 以及资源需求弹性的变化规律, 指出大国工业化和全球经济周期决定资源需求周期, 认为当前全球矿产资源需求的低迷状态还将进一步深化, 至少将延续3~5年。 |
| 中文关键词:战略矿产资源需求 周期 消费贡献率 弹性 |
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| Cycles and Trends of Global Mineral Resources Demand |
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| Abstract:Based on the “S” shape theory of demand for mineral resources, this paper divides the countries in the world into four country groups and three typical countries according to the level of economic development. According to the consumption of steel, copper, lead, zinc and GDP from 1950 to 2014, this paper discusses three cycles of global resource consumption, and systematically analyzes the contribution proportions of various groups of countries to the global resource consumption growth during different periods, and the variation of elasticity of demand for resources. It is pointed out that the large countries’ industrialization and the global economic cycle have determined the resource demand cycle, and that the current state of the global downturn in demand for mineral resources will be further deepened, and this situation will last at least for 3~5 years. |
| keywords:demand of mineral resources cycle contribution rate of consumption elasticity |
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