| GDP增速的“S”形演变轨迹——增速放缓背景下的中国矿产资源需求趋势
——增速放缓背景下的中国矿产资源需求趋势 |
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| 引用本文：王安建,代涛,刘固望.2016.GDP增速的“S”形演变轨迹——增速放缓背景下的中国矿产资源需求趋势
——增速放缓背景下的中国矿产资源需求趋势[J].地球学报,37(5):563-568. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2016.05.05 |
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| 基金项目:国家国际科技合作专项项目“矿产资源需求预测和可供性分析技术研究”(编号: 2014DFG22170) |
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| 中文摘要:使用美国咨商局提供的GDP数据, 运用统计学方法, 分析了美、英、德、法、意、日、韩和中国台湾等15个发达国家和地区1900年以来GDP增速变化趋势, 发现随着经济增长, GDP增速呈现出“S”形演变轨迹, 识别出以德日为代表的快速增长型和以英美为代表的缓慢增长型两类“S”形轨迹。指出工业化中期之后GDP增速的下降缘于第二产业增加值增速放缓和其对GDP贡献率的快速下降, 是工业化中期之后产业结构调整和升级转型的结果。强调近年来中国GDP增速减缓的趋势与快速增长型发达国家相同发展阶段GDP增速减缓的“S”形轨迹相一致, 是工业化中期发展阶段大宗商品需求增速放缓过程中产业结构调整的必然。指出GDP增速下降背景下中国主要矿产资源需求增速将放缓, 但资源消费的数量仍然会持续增长一段时间, 并保持较高的人均消费水平。 |
| 中文关键词:GDP增速 “S”形轨迹 矿产资源 需求趋势 |
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| “S”-curve Model of GDP Growth Rates: China’s Demand Trend for Mineral Resources in the Background of Slowdown GDP Growth Rates |
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| Abstract:Based on the GDP data provided by the Conference Board, the authors used statistical methods to analyze GDP growth trend of 15 developed countries or regions such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea and China’s Taiwan since 1900. The authors have found that, with the growth of economy, GDP growth rates is showing an “S”-curve model. Two types of “S”-curve, i.e., fast growth and slow growth, are also identified. Germany and Japan are representatives of fast growth type whose GDP growth rates grew rapidly with the development of the economy and whose GDP per capita reached the peak of 6 500~7 000 $ (PPP, 1 990 GK$, the same below). Their GDP growth rates were between 5%~10% during the peak period, and then showed a slow decline and were stable between 3%~6%. The United States and the United Kingdom are representatives of slow growth type whose GDP growth rates grew slowly at the early stage, and whose GDP per capita reached the peak of 10 000~12 000 $. Their GDP growth rates were between 2%~5% during the peak period, and then showed a steady slow down and were stable between 1%~3%. It is pointed out that the decline in GDP growth since the middle stage of the industrialization is due to the growth slowdown of the added value of the secondary industry and the rapid decline of its contribution to the GDP, and it is the result of industrial restructuring and upgrading. The authors emphasize that the slowdown trend of China's GDP growth in recent years is consistent with the “S”-curve of the developed countries at the same stage of development, and is the result of industrial restructuring in the background of demand slowdown of commodity at the middle stage of industrialization. It is pointed out that the growth rate of China’s major mineral resources will decline in the background of slowdown GDP growth rates, but the quantity of resources consumption will continue to increase for 5~8 years and maintain a high level of consumption per capita. |
| keywords:GDP growth rate S-curve mineral resources demand trend |
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