| 钢、水泥需求“S”形规律的三个转变点剖析 |
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| 引用本文：陈其慎,王安建,王高尚.2010.钢、水泥需求“S”形规律的三个转变点剖析[J].地球学报,31(5):653-658. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2010.05.06 |
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| 基金项目:公益性科研院所项目(编号: K1007)；地质调查项目(编号: N0702)；国家开发银行项目(编号: E0811) |
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| 中文摘要:本文剖析了人均钢、水泥消费“S”形轨迹的三个重要转变点, 论述了人均消费量和消费强度变化规律的影响因素和内在机制, 阐述了产业部门钢消费强度的倒“U”形轨迹, 在分析国内外经济结构演变趋势的基础上, 提出我国第二产业占GDP比例已经达到顶点, 指出钢、水泥消费强度顶点大小及到来的时间。 |
| 中文关键词:钢铁 水泥 需求顶点 转变点 消费强度 |
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| An Analysis of the Three Turning Points in the “S-Shape” Rule of Steel and Cement Demand |
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| Abstract:This paper analyzes three key turning points on per capita steel and cement consumption S-shaped track, discusses the impacting factors and internal mechanism of the changing rule of the consumption intensity and per capita consumption amount, and illustrates an inverted-U track for the steel consumption intensity in the second industrial departments. Based on an analysis of economic structure changing tendency both in China and abroad, this paper concludes that GDP proportion in the second industry has reached the summit; it also predicts the peak value that the steel and cement consumption intensity will arrive at as well as the arrival time. |
| keywords:steel cement demand summit turning point consumption intensity |
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