| The energy storage industry is a key link of the new energy industry system. Lithium and vanadium, as the two most important energy storage metals, have great uncertainties in their demand influenced by the technical path, so it is necessary to establish a systematic prediction method to predict their demand trend. In this paper, lithium and vanadium are taken as the research objects. Based on system dynamics and material flow analysis, an energy storage metal demand response system is established to provide a tool for dynamically predicting the demand situation of lithium and vanadium. Starting from two aspects of power battery technology path and energy storage battery technology path, this paper designs five scenarios, and analyzes the demand trend of lithium and vanadium in China from 2023 to 2050. The study found that: (1) In 2050, China's energy storage metal demand will increase significantly, lithium demand will increase several times, vanadium demand will increase several times to tens of times; (2) In the future, the consumption of lithium will be highly concentrated on power batteries, and the consumption focus of vanadium will change from steel to energy storage; (3) According to the constant price calculation, the market consumption scale of lithium and vanadium will increase significantly, and it is expected to change from small minerals to bulk minerals under the highest growth scenario; (4) In the future, China's cumulative demand for lithium and vanadium is very likely to face supply security problems around 2035. It is recommended to vigorously strengthen resource exploration, increase the utilization of secondary resources, expand vanadium supply sources, and develop more economical direct vanadium extraction technology. |