| 中国重要矿产资源的需求预测 |
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| 关键词:mineral consumption per capita consumption per capita GDP predication of the consumption China |
| 基金项目:中国地质科学院地质调查项目“全球矿产资源战略研究及矿产资源年报”（DKD2002011） |
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| 摘要: |
| The Prediction of the Demand on Important Mineral Resources in China |
| An "S"pattern between metals per capita consumption and GDP and a linear pattern between energy per capita consumption and GDP were used to predict the consumption of energy,steel,copper,aluminum and zinc in China in the forthcoming 30 years. The factors for the predication were derived from the experience of the developed countries in 20th Century, from China in the past 30 years, and also from two assumptions of GDP growing. The predictive consumption is very large in 2020-2030,but remains 1/4 to 1/3 of the per capita consumption as compared with the developed countries in 2000. |
| WANG Gao-shang,HAN Mei.2002.The Prediction of the Demand on Important Mineral Resources in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,23(6):483-490. |
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