| 基于能源需求理论的全球CO2排放趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文：李晓明,王安建,于汶加.2010.基于能源需求理论的全球CO2排放趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):741-748. |
| DOI：10.3975/cagsb.2010.05.19 |
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| 基金项目:地质调查项目(编号: N0702)；国家开发银行研究项目(编号: E0811) |
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| 中文摘要:能源消费是影响CO2排放的最主要因素, 本文以能源消费基本规律为基础, 按照人均累积CO2排放、人均CO2排放以及CO2排放强度三个重要指标, 系统分析了英国、美国、法国、日本、中国等典型国家CO2排放的历史轨迹, 全面预测了未来20年全球及中国CO2排放量。结果表明: 2030年中国CO2排放总量将为124亿吨, 人均排放约为8.5吨, CO2排放强度为356吨/百万美元, 与处于相同发展程度的美国(1994年)相比, 人均排放指标和排放强度指标均不到其一半水平。2020年和2030年, 中国的CO2排放强度与2007年比将分别降低46%和60%, 将为减缓温室气体排放做出突出贡献。 |
| 中文关键词:能源需求理论 2030年 CO2排放趋势预测 |
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| A Trend Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based on the Energy Demand |
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| Abstract:Of numerous human activities that produce greenhouse gases, the use of energy represents the largest source of CO2 emission. Based on the energy demand theory, this paper analyzes the historical track of CO2 emissions of typical countries according to inference of cumulative CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions per capita and CO2 emission intensity, and then predicts CO2 emissions in the next 20 years. It is found that in 2030, cumulative CO2 emission, CO2 emission per capita and CO2 emission intensity in China will reach 12400 million ton, 8.5 ton and 0.36. As for the level of CO2 emission per capita, China is far below the level of developed countries, and the CO2 emission intensity of China will keep going down in the next 20 years. So it’s clear that China has already made and will continue to make a contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. |
| keywords:energy demand theory in 2030 prediction of CO2 emission |
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